There is still some life left in Turkey’s democracy

Voters in Turkey delivered a strong and unmistakable rebuke to increasingly authoritarian President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling party in municipal elections Sunday. They handed the opposition the largest share of the vote and control of the country’s five largest cities. The question now is whether Mr. Erdogan will heed the message and change his style of governing. The darker possibility is that he’ll respond to the setback with even more repression.

The victorious mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu of the main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, was easily reelected despite Mr. Erdogan campaigning heavily for his challenger. Mr. Imamoglu, a longtime rival to Mr. Erdogan, summed up the significance of the opposition victory, saying the vote “marks the end of democratic erosion in Turkey and the resurgence of democracy.”

If only it were that easy. Mr. Erdogan, immediately chastened by the result, acknowledged his ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, had “lost momentum.” He promised to engage in a period of “self-criticism.” We hope he is sincere and that his critical self-examination leads to an opening of Turkey’s democratic space, a restoration of once-independent institutions and civil society, an end to media censorship, and the release of hundreds of political prisoners and journalists.

Despite his assault on democratic norms, Mr. Erdogan has been able to maintain legitimacy with the West because of the country’s crucial strategic position. Turkey is a long-standing member of NATO and has the alliance’s second-largest army. But Mr. Erdogan is often a troublesome ally. Turkey has refused to join the sanctions against Russia and Mr. Erdogan keeps close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Turkish voters, in turning against Mr. Erdogan’s ruling party and embracing the opposition, were likely swayed as much by Turkey’s dire economic situation as by geopolitical concerns or the president’s increasing authoritarianism. While centralizing power in the presidency, Mr. Erdogan has proved an inept manager of the economy. Inflation is now running at around 70%; unemployment is high; and the value of the Turkish lira has cratered by more than 80% in the past five years.

There have been signs lately that Mr. Erdogan is abandoning some of his earlier, unorthodox economic views that led to the country’s crisis — such as resisting interest rate hikes, believing they would lead to higher prices. The Central Bank under a new and more competent team last year belatedly began raising rates. But much of the damage from Mr. Erdogan’s mismanagement has been harder to reverse.

Whether Sunday’s elections really mark the end of Turkey’s democratic backsliding remains an open question. The answer depends on whether Mr. Erdogan is willing to listen to the message the voters have clearly sent.