The bidding points the way to winners

PEARLS BEFORE SWINE® GARFIELD® BIG NATE® ARLO & JANIS® ZITS®

Richard Darman, who worked for presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, said, “I have no idea what White House statement was issued, but I stand by it 100 percent.”

Expert bridge players carry a lot of percentages in their heads, which are helpful occasionally. But the real art is recognizing when the right line is an a priori anti-percentage play.

How does that apply today? South is in four spades. West leads the heart king. East overtakes with his ace and returns the heart two. West takes that trick and shifts to a diamond. What should declarer do now?

The most common mistake my students make is replying to partner’s takeout double. They bid their longest suit at the lowest level regardless of hand strength and expect partner to be psychic. Here, though, South correctly jumped to two spades, which promised 9-11 points. (He added two points for his singleton club because he knew his side had an eight- or nine-card spade fit.)

South must lose a club trick, so cannot afford to concede a trump trick. In isolation, declarer would take the spade finesse, which is a 50-50 shot. The mathematicians will tell you that West has a singleton king only 6.25 percent of the time. However, as no doubt you have noticed, West needs to have the spade king for his opening bid. Also, if East had seven points, he surely would have done something positive over North’s double. So, South should play a spade to his ace and hope the king drops.

Keep counting high-card points to place missing honor cards.