One forecast says Germany, Norway benefit from Russia absence

TOKYO — It’s still unclear how many Russian athletes will compete next month in the Pyeongchang Olympics, but a few things seem certain.

Athletes from winter powers like Germany and Norway could pick up unexpected medals with some top Russians absent because of a massive doping scheme four years ago at the Sochi Games.

One medal forecast for Pyeongchang , compiled by Gracenote Sports, which refers to itself as a “sports and entertainment provider,” shows the impact if Russian athletes are missing.

Gracenote released its medal-table projection on Wednesday, this time removing all Russians from the calculation. The U.s.-based company said it would release a final prediction just before the Olympics open on Feb. 9, this time including Russians who are known to be eligible and who will compete under the name “Olympic Athlete from Russia,” or OAR.

Their participation, of course, would cut into the medal haul of other strong nations.

The Russian Olympic Committee said in December that “more than 200” athletes will meet the qualifying criteria. However, the final decision, barring appeals to the based-swiss Court of Arbitration for Sport, will be in the hands of an IOC commission — the Fourneyron Commission.

Germany and Norway are the big winners without Russia.

Gracenote forecasts Germany would win five extra medals, followed by Norway with four. Canada, France and Japan would pick up two extra medals. Finland, Britain, Italy and the Netherlands would get one each.