Trump’s economic gamble: Solid job gains vs. risky trade war

WASHINGTON — From the safety of a resilient U.S. economy, President Donald Trump lit the fuse Friday on a high-risk trade war with China.

History suggests that a cycle of tariffs and retaliations can eventually choke economic growth. But for now, employers, investors and U.S. consumers are weighing the perils of a prolonged rift between the world’s two largest economies against a far more positive backdrop: America’s healthiest job market in years.

Evidently confident despite the risks ahead, U.S. employers have added jobs this year at a robust monthly average of 214,500. Many businesses say they’ve reached the point where they can’t even find enough people to fill jobs. Unemployment is at a low 4 percent.

All that hiring is occurring in an economic expansion that is entering its 10th year — the second-longest streak on record. The U.S. financial markets, while wary of the trade fights Trump has pursued, have swung this year between modest gains and losses but have avoided any sustained panic.

“The robustness of the economy — and it’s stronger than it has been in decades — inoculates Trump’s trade policy moves from closer scrutiny,” said Daniel Ikenson, director for trade policy studies at the libertarian Cato Institute.

Most employers see the economy as having achieved a comfortable cruising speed and have kept hiring. In surveys of business sentiment, they have expressed concerns about the tariffs, but their wariness has yet to disrupt their business plans.

The United States added 213,000 jobs in June, and an influx of new jobseekers, seemingly optimistic about their prospects but not finding work right away, lifted the unemployment rate from 3.8 percent to 4 percent, the government reported Friday.

Helping propel growth, business and consumers have received a $136 billion stimulus this year from tax cuts. Quarterly economic growth is on track to be the strongest since 2014. Housing starts are up 11 percent so far this year.

From this position of strength, President Donald Trump is gambling that he can deploy tariffs to his advantage even though they will inflict some pain on businesses and consumers that backed him in 2016. The Trump team’s calculation appears to be that foreign countries have no choice but to trade with the world’s largest economy and will ultimately have to yield.

The president hopes to extract concessions not only from China but also from such long-standing allies as the European Union, Canada and Mexico. His stated goal is to reduce U.S. trade imbalances and create more U.S. manufacturing jobs.