The truth is scary to some…

Porterville Recorder - - OPINION - Raoul Low­ery Contreras is a con­ser­va­tive colum­nist. His col­umn ap­pears on Fridays in The Recorder. He can be con­tacted at his­pan­ic­com­men­ta­tor@gmail. com.

For those that hide in their base­ments and clos­ets, arm them­selves with shot­guns, and lose sleep night after night be­cause there is an il­le­gal alien crime wave led by gang­sters from El Sal­vador — vi­cious gang­sters in Pres­i­dent Trump’s “MS-13”— you can rest, there isn’t an il­le­gal alien crime wave, and MS-13 barely ex­ists.

Mr. Trump’s MS-13: “At­tor­ney General Jeff Ses­sions has called MS-13 the most bru­tal of the gangs driv­ing the drug trade… ex­perts have found the gang has barely any role in the in­ter­na­tional drug trade. The Con­gres­sional Re­search Ser­vice said that it could be mis­lead­ing to call MS-13 a transna­tional crim­i­nal or­ga­ni­za­tion at all, be­cause it has no cen­tral leader or global am­bi­tions.” In a phrase, MS-13 is no “Mex­i­can Mafia,” a real gang.

In fact, MS-13 has about 10,000 mem­bers, the same as Newsweek’s “…most dan­ger­ous gang in Amer­ica” (MS-13) had in 2005. The math: law en­force­ment es­ti­mates there are 1.4 “mil­lion” doc­u­mented gang-mem­bers na­tion­wide. 10,000 di­vided by 1.4 mil­lion is 0.007 per­cent.

Big deal, Mr. Pres­i­dent.

Trump Suprema sup­porter, “anorexic-look­ing” writer Ann Coul­ter wrote in her book “Adios Amer­ica” that there are 36-mil­lion il­le­gal aliens in the United States. That is three times the ac­cepted es­ti­mates of the Trump Ad­min­is­tra­tion, Pew Re­search and most ob­servers and com­men­ta­tors who study the sit­u­a­tion. Fox’s Tucker Carl­son, pro­motes a bo­gus study from some grad­u­ate student at MIT and two Yale pro­fes­sors that claims their re­search in­di­cates 22 mil­lion il­le­gal aliens in the U.S.

Now, let us get back to il­le­gal alien crime. We’ve dis­posed of the MS-13 myth per­pe­trated by the Trump Ad­min­is­tra­tion, but what about Pres­i­dent Trump’s claim at a rally on Mon­day, Novem­ber 5, the day be­fore the mid-term elec­tion, that 1800 Amer­i­cans (a year? He didn’t say) are killed by il­le­gal aliens — the kind walk­ing through Mex­ico to the U.S. in a “car­a­van” from Cen­tral Amer­ica.

Pres­i­dent Trump has no idea how many Amer­i­cans are killed by il­le­gal aliens. No one does. But there are two other num­bers kicked around by those who are vir­u­lently hos­tile to im­mi­grants, le­gal and il­le­gal.

One is by con­tro­ver­sial Iowa Con­gress­man Steve King, who en­dorsed a White Su­prem­a­cist for Mayor of Toronto, Canada and the other by Mary Ann Men­doza (she is not His­panic, her name is), whose po­lice of­fi­cer son was killed in his pa­trol car when a drunken il­le­gal alien crashed his ve­hi­cle into the pa­trol car.

King claimed in a 2006 speech that “12 Amer­i­cans” a day would live if il­le­gals weren’t in the U.S. That is 4,380 a year. Mary Ann Men­doza claims she came up with 63,000 Amer­i­can deaths at the hands of il­le­gal aliens since 2001. King came up with his fig­ure out of thin air.

Men­doza, ob­vi­ously not a re­searcher, re­lied on a study con­ducted by the Govern­ment Ac­count­abil­ity Of­fice pub­lished in 2011 that stud­ied 1000 prison and lo­cal jail in­mates who were for­eign born (no dis­tinc­tion as to le­gal res­i­dency) and in­car­cer­ated be­tween 2004 and 2008. She ar­rived at the 63,000 by adding the years 2001-2004 and 2008 un­til 2016 on her own, cal­cu­lat­ing the 63,000 fig­ure with­out any in­put from govern­ment sources.

In other words, 63,000 is fan­tasy, just as King’s 12 Amer­i­cans mur­dered daily is.

Real num­bers from the state of Texas re­lated by CATO In­sti­tute’s Alex Nowrasteh:

“In 2016, 746 na­tive-born Tex­ans, 32 il­le­gal im­mi­grants, and 28 le­gal im­mi­grants were con­victed of homi­cide. In that year, the homi­cide con­vic­tion rate for na­tive-born Amer­i­cans in Texas was 3.2 per 100,000 na­tives while it was 1.8 per 100,000 il­le­gal im­mi­grants and 0.9 per 100,000 le­gal im­mi­grants (Fig­ure 1). The il­le­gal im­mi­grant con­vic­tion rate for homi­cide was 44 per­cent below that of na­tive-born Amer­i­cans in 2016 in Texas.”

Imag­ine that. Now add in the bo­gus es­ti­mates of il­le­gal aliens in the U.S. by Ann Coul­ter’s 36 mil­lion il­le­gal aliens and VOILA! The 1.8 per 100,000 il­le­gal aliens ac­tu­ally con­victed in Texas of mur­der would be — us­ing Coul­ter’s fig­ure — 0.6 per 100,000. That’s one-fifth of na­tive born Amer­i­cans.

Or, as the highly paid anti-im­mi­grant Ex­ec­u­tive Di­rec­tor of the sus­pect Cen­ter for Im­mi­gra­tion Stud­ies Mark Kriko­rian ad­mits, “A lot of data does sug­gest im­mi­grants are less likely to be in­volved in crime.”

Con­gress­man King? Ms. Men­doza? Mr. Trump?

The Right Side Raoul Low­ery Contreras

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