Which is better? Do the arithmetic

FRANK-N-ERNEST® GRIZZWELLS® BIG NATE® ARLO & JANIS® ZITS®

Carl Sandburg, who won three Pulitzer Prizes, two for his poetry and one for his biography of Abraham Lincoln, said, “Arithmetic is where the answer is right, and everything is nice, and you can look out of the window and see the blue sky — or the answer is wrong, and you have to start over, and try again and see how it comes out this time.”

What does the arithmetic recommend in this deal? South is in four spades, and West leads a low club.

The auction was straightforward, even though three no-trump would have been an easy make.

It looks obvious to take the club finesse at trick one. Here, though, when it loses, East will shift to the heart queen, and the contract will fail.

Declarer could play to establish dummy’s diamond suit, giving him six spades, one heart, one club and two diamonds.

Assuming diamonds are 4-2, declarer needs three dummy entries, two for diamond ruffs and one to return to the dummy to cash the long diamond. Those must be the spade king, spade 10 and diamond ace. So, after taking the club ace at trick one, South leads a low diamond. West wins and plays a club to his partner’s king. East switches to the heart queen. Declarer wins, cashes the spade ace, plays a diamond to the ace, ruffs a diamond high, crosses to the spade 10, ruffs another diamond high, plays a spade to the king and cashes the diamond eight.

What is the arithmetic? South needs trumps 2-2 or 3-1 and diamonds 3-3 or 4-2, which is 76 percent — much better than relying on the club finesse. The sums have spoken.