Post-holiday Surge?
Data is mixed on if surge is happening
There was a brief respite when it came to two stats on Thursday as far as COVID-19 is concerned and as far as the overall data on if a postholiday surge is happening, the stats are mixed.
After a large increase the day before in the number of active COVID-19 cases, Tulare County Health and Human Services reported a huge decline in active cases on Thursday.
And so far the case rate in Tulare County, it’s holding steady and saw a decline on Thursday. But the case rate is still a long ways away from where it needs to be for the county to move from the worst tier, the purple tier, to the next tier, the red tier.
And before Tulare County can even move back into the purple tier, the stay-at-home order that will be in effect indefinitely must first be lifted. It’s expected the stay-at-home order in effect in the San Joaquin Valley will be in effect until at least mid-january.
The state still had the Valley’s ICU availability officially listed as 0 percent. For the stay-at-home order to be lifted the Valley’s projected ICU availability four weeks out must be at least 15 percent. The state is reviewing regions’ ICU availability on a daily basis and at press time, the state still had the Valley’s projected ICU availability as “demand exceeds capacity.”
As of Thursday, Tulare County’s ICU availability was actually above the 15 percent threshold. The health department reported there were eight ICU beds — 16.7 percent — available in Tulare County. But again the entire Valley’s ICU availability needs to be at least 15 percent for the stay-at-home order to be lifted.
And based on what was reported by Sierra View Medical Center later Thursday afternoon, the county’s ICU availability may have dropped again. Sierra View reported nine of its 10 ICU beds were in use.
Sierra View also reported data that shows there could be an increase in COVID-19 pa
tients at the hospital. The hospital reported it had 45 COVID-19 patients and 13 patients suspected of having COVID-19.
Sierra View reported nine of its 23 ventilators were in use. And Sierra View reported the number of its employees who have tested positive for COVID-19 continues to rise and is now up to 25, including four who are hospitalized.
There have been 101 employees at Sierra View who have recovered after testing positive for COVID-19. Sierra View has had a total of 777 positive tests.
Sierra View has had 89 deaths due to COVID-19. And there was another large increase reported by the health department in deaths on Thursday.
The health department reported seven more deaths on Thursday, brining the total of deaths due to COVID-19 in Tulare County to 406. The county has data on 373 deaths of which 290 were ages 65 and older, 76 were ages 41-64 and seven were under the age of 41. There have been 130 deaths related to nursing homes and 243 deaths not related to nursing homes.
As far as Tulare County’s R number which measures the rate of spread of the virus, while there was a slight increase, the county’s R number was still in the “likely stable” range, meaning the rate of increase is expected to continue at its current rate. Tulare County’s R number is 1.05, which represents the average number of people who would be infected by one infected person. The state’s R number is .98.
Tulare County’s unofficial, preliminary case rate fell by 5 on Thursday to 73 per 100,000 residents over a 7-day period. But the county must reduce that number to 7 per 100,000 to move into the red tier once the stay-at-home order is lifted.
The number of active cases declined by 371 on Thursday. There are now 4,620 people in Tulare County who have tested positive for COVID-19.
The number of recoveries increased substantially by 682. There are now 28,417 people in Tulare County who have recovered after testing positive for COVID-19.
The health department reported 318 more cases in the county on Thursday. Since March 11 there have been 33,443 cases in Tulare County.
There have been 6,501 cases in the Porterville area, 455 cases in Terra Bella, 67 cases in Springville, 434 cases in Strathmore, 1,230 cases in Lindsay, 67 cases in foothill-mountain communities, 5,851 cases in Tulare, 3,020 cases in Dinuba, 220 cases in Richgrove, 59 cases in Alpaugh, 553 cases in Pixley, 225 cases in Tipton, 1,084 cases in Earlimart, 841 cases in Farmersville, 740 cases in Exeter, 34 cases in Three Rivers, 579 cases in Woodlake, 533 cases in Cutler, 988 cases in Orosi, 171 cases in Traver, 68 cases in Goshen, 37 cases in the Reedley area and 11 cases on Orange Cove.
In Visalia there have been 3,743 cases in one region, 2,380 cases in another region and 2,919 cases in a third region.
There have been 4,737 cases ages 0-17, 5,262 cases ages 18-25, 9,595 cases ages 26-40, 10,363 cases ages 41-64 and 3,470 cases ages 65 and older.
There have been 18,523 cases who have been Hispanic, 4,296 have been Caucasian, 659 have been Asian, 205 have been African American, 184 have been Native American, 994 have been multirace and 8,582 are unknown.
There are 515 people in Tulare County in self-quarantine being monitored by public health officials.
With a population of about 470,000 people, there have been 7 cases per 100 residents in Tulare County or 7 percent.