Data Overload?
When will stay-at-home order be lifted? State doesn’t release key info that determines when
When it comes to the stay-at-home order, the San Joaquin Valley may be closer to it being lifted than one thinks.
But it’s actually hard to know since the state doesn’t release all the information that determines when the stayat-home order will be lifted.
The standard seems to be simple. The Valley will remain under the stay-at-home order until it’s ICU availability is projected to be at least 15 percent in four weeks.
But there’s actually a complex set of measurements that determines that projection. The state claims to release those measurements would just cause confusion. But others say not releasing the data is just causing more uncertainty.
Last week it appeared none of the four regions in the state were close to having the stay-at-home order lifted. But within a day the stay-at-home order was lifted in the Sacramento region.
All that’s shown for the Valley by the state that its official ICU availability continues to be zero percent. As far as how close the Valley is to having a projected availability of at least 15 percent in four weeks the state website simply states the Valley is “below threshold.”
Tulare County Health and Human Services reported ICU availability on Friday that was about the same as it has been for a while. The department reported there were three ICU beds, 6.7 percent, available. On Friday, Sierra View Medical Center reported nine of its 10 ICU beds were in use.
State officials project future ICU availability based on a combination of models, but don’t share that information publicly. Projections are based on available ICU beds and staff.
The argument for more data to be released includes allowing businesses to have the information needed so they can prepare for when they can possibly reopen. Businesses in the Sacramento area were caught off guard when the stay-at-home order was lifted.
The state has shown roughly a 30 percent decline in Southern California ICU patients. And a smaller, but significant decline has also been shown in the Valley.
So the Valley may be closer to the stay-athome order being lifted, but again who knows?
In November the Center For American Liberty filed a lawsuit against the California Health and Human Services Agency seeking more public records regarding the science and data used to justify the state’s shelter-in-place, face covering, and canceling of mass gathering orders.
“It is unacceptable that Governor Newsom has openly disregarded essential transparency laws, depriving legal insights to its decision making, that have had devastating consequences to millions of Californians,” said Center for American Liberty Executive Director Mark Trammell. “If Governor
Newsom and CHHS is confident in its science and data, they should enthusiastically share it with its constituents and press, rather than breaking the law to keep it secret.”
BY THE NUMBERS
The metrics continue to gradually head in the right direction as far as the status of COVID-19 in Tulare County is concerned. The trend suggests the county may be beginning to turn the corner.
Once the stay-at-home order is lifted, Tulare County will return to the most restrictive tier, the purple tier.
The health department reported on Friday, the county’s unofficial, preliminary rate continued to drop down to 66.4 per 100,000 residents over a 7-day period. That’s a decrease of 2.6 from the previous day. For Tulare County to move into the red tier it must reduce that number to 7 per 100,000.
The number of hospitalizations declined as on Friday the health department reported there are 186 COVID-19 patients in Tulare County, a drop of 11 from the previous day.
The county’s and the state’s R numbers are also coming closer to being within the range of where Tulare County Health and Human Services Director Tim Lutz said they need to be. The gradual decline in the county’s R number, which measures the rate of spread of the virus, continued its decline as it came down to .92 on Friday.
That keeps Tulare County in the “likely stable” category, meaning the rate of the virus is still expected to increase at its current high level. The state’s R number is .87. The R number represents the average number of people who would be infected by one infected person.
There was also a large decrease in the number of active cases in the county. The health department reported a decline of 364 active cases on Friday. There are now 4,466 people in Tulare County who have tested positive for COVID-19.
The number of recoveries increased by 580 on Friday. There are now 37,762 people in Tulare County who have recovered after testing positive for COVID-19.
The health department reported two more deaths on Friday, bringing the total number of deaths in Tulare County due to COVID-19 to 531. The county has data on 501 deaths of which 390 were ages 65 and older, 101 were ages 41-64 and 10 were under the age of 41.
There have been 147 deaths related to nursing homes and 243 deaths not related to nursing homes. Sierra View has had 121 deaths due to COVID-19.
On Friday, Sierra View reported it had 34 COVID-19 patients and 13 patients suspected of having COVID-19. Sierra View reported seven of its 26 ventilators were in use.
Sierra View reported it now had 12 employees who have tested positive for COVID-19, including five who are hospitalized. There have been 147 employees who have recovered after testing positive for COVID-19. Sierra View has had a total of 953 positive tests.
The number of overall cases increased by 218 on Friday. Since March 11 there have been 42,759 cases in Tulare County.
There have been 8,226 cases in the Porterville area, 33 cases in foothill-mountain communities, 111 cases in Springville, 586 cases in Terra Bella, 534 cases in Strathmore, 1,566 cases in Lindsay, 7,295 case in Tulare, 3,607 cases in Dinuba, 279 cases in Richgrove, 685 cases in Pixley, 303 cases in Tipton, 64 cases in Alpaugh, 1,235 cases in Earlimart, 1,006 cases in Farmersville, 874 cases in Exeter, 41 cases in Three Rivers, 761 cases in Woodlake, 650 cases in Cutler, 1,222 cases in Orosi, 209 cases in Traver, 82 cases in Goshen, 47 cases in the Reedley area, 17 cases in Orange Cove and 436 cases in Ivanhoe.
In Visalia there have been 4,545 case in one region, 3,562 cases in another region and 2,980 cases in a third region.
There have been 6,248 cases ages 0-17, 12,094 cases ages 26-40, 13,264 cases ages 41-64 and 4,432 cases ages 65 and older.
There have been 23,482 cases who have been Hispanic, 5,673 have been Caucasian, 827 have been Asian, 289 have been African American, 258 have been Native American, 1,374 have been multirace and 10,856 are unknown.
There are 316 people in Tulare County who are under self-quarantine being monitored by public health officials.
With a population of about 470,000 people, Tulare County has a rate of nearly 9 cases per 100,000 residents or 9 percent.
The Associated Press contributed to this story.