Gov. could be in trouble — in 2022

As expected even if a recall election is held as it looks like it will — Governor Gavin Newsom doesn’t appear to be in any danger of being removed from office this year. But 2022 could be a different story.

Californians seem to be, well, all over the place when it comes to Newsom’s performance. Even if the recall election is held as expected, a majority of Californians won’t support the recall.

But while they’re not ready to oust Newsom this year — they actually say they could be ready to oust him when he’s up for reelection in 2022. And even though Newsom’s approval rating continues to go down, a majority of Californians actually say the state is on the right track.

Those are the findings of a poll conducted conducted by the Nexstar Media Group’s six California Television Stations along with Emerson College that was released on Monday. The statewide poll of more than 1,000 registered voters has a margin of error of 3 percent.

It looks like organizers of a campaign to recall Newsom will have the required 1.5 million verified signatures for a recall election to be held.

When a recall election would be held later this year, two questions would be asked: The first question would be if they’re in favor of the recall.

It looks like even in the event of a recall election, the recall effort would fail. The poll found 42 percent would vote against the recall, 38 percent would vote for the recall, 13.9 percent were undecided and 6.1 percent wouldn’t vote. More than 50 percent of voters would

have to vote for the recall for the second question on the ballot to be in effect which would be for voters to choose a candidate from all the candidates who would be on the ballot.

In that scenario, the candidate who receives the most votes would then be elected governor and a majority of votes wouldn’t be needed. But in that scenario the poll finds a slim majority would vote to keep Newsom anyway.

But when it comes to a recall election, Spencer Kimball, the Director of Emerson Polling, said Newsom could still be in a little trouble, especially with younger Democrats.

“The Republicans are in favor of the recall regardless of which candidate they put up and the Democrats are still with Newsom, but there is a weaker support for the governor among younger Democrats,” Kimball said.

So Kimball said “If a fresh new face emerges on the left” that could be a “game changer” and help the recall effort.

And when it comes to the 2022 election when asked if they would reelect Newsom, only 41.7 percent said they would. There were 58.3 percent who said it would be time for someone new.

Newsom’s approval rating which had been hovering around 50 percent recently in some polls was down to 41.8 percent in the Emerson poll. There were 40.3 percent who disapproved of Newsom’s performance and 17.9 percent were undecided.

When it comes to Newsom’s managing of the COVID-19 pandemic, his approval rating was a little higher at 45.4 percent, who a disapproval rating of 43.7 percent.

There were 10.9 percent who were undecided.

So Kimball said Newsom’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic is obviously an issue. “Part of the issue for Governor Newsom is his management of the COVID-19 pandemic, where voters are split in their approval,” he said.

But if Republicans want to make Newsom’s mask mandate, they’re probably picking the wrong issue, Kimball said.

The vast majority of Californians were in favor of the mask mandate at 74 percent. Fifty-one percent described Newsom’s mask mandate as the right measure while 23 percent said it actually didn’t go far enough. Only 26 percent were against the mask mandate.

The most interesting finding in the poll is despite Newsom’s low approval rating, 57.2 percent said the state is on the right track while 42.6 percent said it’s on the wrong track.

The economy is also obviously a major issue and it also provided an interesting finding in the poll.

While a strong majority of Californians believe the state is on the right track only 36 percent believe it’s on the right path economically while 39 percent believe it’s on the wrong path. There were 25 percent who were undecided.

One finding in the poll that wasn’t surprising was the recall effort broke along party lines. Only 11.8 percent of Democrats would vote to recall Newsom while 86.2 percent of Republicans would vote to recall him.

Only 39.4 percent of independents would vote to recall him.

There were 65.6 percent of Democrats who would vote to keep Newsom while only 6.3

percent of Republicans would vote to keep him. Another interesting finding in the poll was while less than 40 percent of independents would vote to recall Newsom, only 34.5 percent would vote to keep him.

And the interest in a recall election is relatively high.

Sixty-seven percent said they were interested with 26.6 saying they were extremely interested, 17.4 percent saying they were very interested and 23.1 percent saying they were moderately interested. There were 13.3 percent who said they were only a little interested and 19.7 percent said they weren’t interested at all.

One of the major Republican candidates who will challenge Newsom, former San Diego Major

Kevin Faulconer, seized on the poll result that nearly 60 percent said it would be time for a new governor in 2022.

“Nearly 60 percent of Californians are ready to turn the page on Gavin Newsom’s failures. Democrats, Republicans, and Independents are all ready for change,” said John Burke, communications director for the Faulconer for Governor campaign. “Gavin Newsom has ignored the needs of the people of California for too long. Kevin Faulconer is ready to provide a new direction and lead a California Comeback.”

Other major Republicans set to challenge Newsom include businessman John Cox.

NEWSOM, DEMOCRATS RESPOND

For the first time on Monday, Newsom acknowledged the recall effort in a significant manner. Newsom launched a political committee on

Monday to fight the recall.

“I won’t be distracted by this partisan, Republican recall — but I will fight it,” Newsom posted on Twitter.

“There is too much at stake. Getting Californians vaccinated, our economy safely reopened, and our kids back in school are simply too important to risk.”

Democrats in the state have acknowledge for weeks the recall is a serious effort, but on Monday the state Democratic party offered financial support for the first time, promising Newsom $250,000 to fight the recall.

And in another sign of how seriously Democrats are taking the recall effort, prominent national Democrats are coming to Newsom’s defense.

“Gavin Newsom has shown the nation what courageous leadership looks like during the pandemic,” New Jersey Senator Cory Booker said.

“Defeating this cynical, Republican recall effort will be one of the most important priorities for Democrats this year.”

Newsom also emailed: “I am not going to take this recall attempt lying down.”

And even though Monday’s poll stated there was overwhelming support for Newsom’s mask mandate, Newsom accused “anti-mask and anti-van extremists for being behind the recall effort.

“And let’s call it what it is: it’s a partisan, Republican recall — backed by the (Republican National Committee), anti-mask and anti-vax extremists, and pro-trump forces who want to overturn the last election and have opposed much of what we have done to fight the pandemic,” Newsom said.