Recall voters so far largely Democratic and older
LOS ANGELES — The critical question left in the California recall election that could remove Gov. Gavin Newsom isn’t whether someone likes the first-term Democrat — it’s who is going to take the time to vote.
At this point, it’s all about turnout.
Mail-in ballots went to all 22 million registered voters in mid-august for the unusual, late-summer election. More than 4.6 million have been returned so far and while it’s not known how they voted, information is available on their political affiliation, age and ethnicity.
The data shows Democrats are off to an encouraging start, turning in more than twice the number submitted by Republicans, a rate that largely mirrors the party’s registration edge in the state. More than a third of those who have voted are 65 or older.
But with less than two weeks left before the Sept. 14 election, many unknowns remain.
Some of the state’s most inconsistent voters – younger people and Latinos who lean Democratic – aren’t showing up in expected numbers. Will that change? And will many Republicans wait to vote in person rather than send in mailed ballots? That’s what happened in 2020 and it helped the GOP re-capture several U.S. House seats in the heavily Democratic state.
Because of the oddly timed election — scheduled at the tail end of summer amid a pandemic — it’s difficult to be confident about who will vote. “The exact number is really anybody’s guess,” said Mindy Romero, director of the University of Southern California’s Center for Inclusive Democracy. She called a recall election “its own unique animal.”
Driving voter turnout is a crucial factor but it’s not a precise science. Newsom and his Republican rivals, including conservative talk radio host Larry Elder and former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, are competing with a host of distractions as they seek to win over votes, from backto-school preparations to massive wildfires burning in Northern California.
Celebrities, political and not, are being enlisted in the fight, with former progressive presidential candidates and U.S. Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren cutting ads opposing the recall while Elder counts actors Chuck Norris and Dean Cain among his supporters.
Potential voters are being hailed with texts, digital ads, emails and TV commercials — and visits at their front doors from volunteers — all in hopes of spurring them to fill out the two-question ballot that could end Newsom’s term and replace him with one of dozens of candidates. His rivals range from the obscure to the famous, notably, former Olympian and reality TV personality Caitlyn Jenner.
In an email this week, the Orange County Republican Party warned that Democrats were leading in turnout in the critical swing county by 8% and called on volunteers to knock on voters’ doors or make phone calls in the closing sprint to Election Day.
“This campaign will be won by turnout,” the party said, noting that 175,000 voters had been reached with a recent digital ad campaign flogging Newsom. The party was aiming for an election day stampede to the polls.
“This is where Republicans have traditionally turned the tide: in person,” the email said.
The recall was largely driven by frustration with whipsaw coronavirus restrictions that shuttered businesses and schools. Those who want Newsom removed turned in more than 1.7 million valid signatures to get the question before voters.
The embattled Newsom remains a prohibitive favorite in liberal-leaning California, where Democrats hold every statewide office and a super-majority in the Legislature.
In the recall, voters are asked two questions: Should Newsom be removed? And who should replace him?
In a deeply polarized political environment similar to the 2020 presidential election, “Democrats are more likely to vote for Newsom and Republicans are more likely to vote against (him),” said Joshua Spivak, senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College who specializes in recall elections. With a huge advantage for Democrats in registration “the more polarized the electorate, the better for Newsom.”