2022 midterms: What to watch in primaries
LOS ANGELES — Primary elections in seven states Tuesday will set the stage for U.S. House and Senate races this fall, with many contests shaped by political fissures in both major parties and the lingering shadow of former President Donald Trump.
With control of Congress in play, a string of Republican House incumbents are contending with challenges from the political right, and some rivals are embracing Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud in his 2020 loss to President Joe Biden.
No incumbent governors or senators appear to be in imminent danger. In Iowa, several Democrats are jockeying for the chance to take on seven-term Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, with the campaign showcasing the breach between the Democratic Party’s progressive and establishment wings.
Former Trump Cabinet member Ryan Zinke is seeking the GOP nomination in a newly created House district in Montana.
What to watch in Tuesday’s primaries in California.
California is a Democratic fortress where the party holds every statewide office and its voters outnumber registered Republicans by nearly 2-to-1. Gov. Gavin Newsom and U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla face little-known competitors.
But Republicans retain pockets of strength in some U.S. House districts that are expected to be among the most competitive races in the country.
In a heavily Democratic district in the state’s Central Valley farm belt, Republican U.S. Rep. David Valadao is seeing blowback for his vote to impeach Trump over the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol insurrection. Republican Chris Mathys has made Valadao’s vote a centerpiece in his campaign to oust him.
In a Democratic-leaning district north of Los Angeles, several Democrats are hoping to take on Republican Rep. Mike Garcia, who is expected to advance to November with one of the Democrats as the top two finishers in the race. Garcia rejected electoral votes from Arizona and Pennsylvania being cast for Biden and opposed Trump’s impeachment after the Capitol insurrection.
The crowded Los Angeles mayor’s race is shaping up to be a fight between Rick Caruso, a pro-business billionaire Republican-turneddemocrat who sits on the board of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation, and Democratic U.S. Rep. Karen Bass, who was on Biden’s shortlist for vice president. If no candidate clears 50%, the top two finishers advance to a November runoff.
In another closely watched election, San Francisco voters are considering whether to recall District Attorney Chesa Boudin, a progressive Democrat who critics say has failed to prosecute repeat offenders, amid widespread frustration with crime and homelessness. FOCUS ON HOUSE A midterm primary season that opened with elections testing former President Donald Trump’s sway among Republicans enters a new phase this week with U.S. House contests that will shape the future of Congress.
From the New Jersey suburbs to Iowa’s capital city to California’s Central Valley, primary elections on Tuesday will determine which Republicans will take on some of the most prominent Democrats who helped flip control of the U.S. House four years ago.
For these members of the class of 2018, the matchups are unfolding in a dramatically different environment. Trump is out of the White House, replaced by a president of their own party whose approval ratings are plummeting. Moderate voters in the suburbs who swung to Democrats during the Trump era may be open to Republicans again, frustrated by a series of challenges ranging from inflation to rising gas prices and a shortage of baby formula.
Against that backdrop, some of the vulnerable Democrats who will learn who their Republican opponents will be this week said they are braced for an intense campaign season. They plan to spend the coming months in a relentless effort to stay focused on solutions to local problems.
“I’m going to work only on issues that have a deep impact in our community,” U.S. Rep. Josh Harder, D-calif., said in an interview.
Representing a district with workers who commute up to 90 miles to jobs near San Francisco, Harder said he plans to emphasize his push — so far unsuccessful — to repeal the federal gas tax. He’s also co-sponsored legislation, which passed the House last month, to crack down on alleged price gouging by oil companies and other energy producers, a bill facing steep odds in the U.S. Senate, split evenly among Democrats and Republicans.
“These are local issues with national connections,” he said, noting his votes in the House “only have an impact if they’re actually seen, understood and felt by people in a district just like this.”
Meredith Kelly, a senior adviser to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2018, said this week’s races are “previews of some real battles for the fall in swing districts.”
“These are incumbents who are battle-tested, who not only won in 2018 but held on in 2020, for many in a tougher year than some expected,” she said.
Republicans need to gain only five seats to win control of the House in the fall. Few Democratic seats are more at risk than that of Rep. Cindy Axne, whose Iowa district stretches from Democratic-leaning Des Moines to Gop-friendly suburbs and staunchly conservative farmland in Iowa’s southwest corner.