Democrats, GOP see state as target for House gains Three Valley races among those being watched
LOS ANGELES — House Republican leader Kevin Mccarthy has predicted the GOP could seize control of the chamber in November by picking up seats in just one state: his own, California.
Home to 1 in 8 Americans, the nation’s most populous state is known as a Democratic monolith, but that distinction masks a more complicated political stew behind its national reputation.
No one disputes that California tilts to the political left — Republicans haven’t won a statewide race since 2006 and Democrats dominate the legislative and congressional delegations. But scattered pockets of conservative strength remain, particularly in rural and farming areas and sprawling Southern California suburbs.
Mccarthy, who lives in Bakersfield, and other Republicans believe as many as five districts in California could swing their way next month — enough to give them House control in a year when voters typically punish the party that holds the White House. In a troubling sign for Democrats, President Joe Biden’s popularity nationally remains lackluster.
With mail-in ballots for the Nov. 8 election already sent to voters, many Californians are in an anxious mood, stressed by high prices at the grocery store and gas pump, an unchecked homeless crisis and rising crime rates spotlighted in Los Angeles and other big cities by smash-and-grab robberies and home invasions.
Republicans fault Biden and state Democrats for crime and inflation, while Democrats have been warning about threats to abortion rights, mirroring arguments that frame the national fight for the House majority.
In an acknowledgement of the risks, Biden visited California last week to shore up support for vulnerable Democrats and raise money.
About a half-dozen House contests are closely matched, and several others are competitive. There are 221 Democrats, 212 Republicans and two vacancies in the House.
The GOP, however,
must overcome hefty Democratic registration advantages in some competitive districts. State Republican ranks have been withering for years and the GOP is outnumbered about 2-to-1 by Democrats statewide.
Democrats want to claw back four House districts they lost in 2020 and hope to gain more. They’ve been stressing that reproductive rights are on the ballot and would be in jeopardy if Republicans take charge, after the Supreme Court in June stripped away constitutional protections for abortion. Former President Donald Trump’s continued influence on the GOP looms in the background — he’s widely unpopular in the state outside his conservative base.
“If we lose control of the House and Senate, we have a different world,” Biden warned at a recent Democratic National Committee reception. “There’s so much at stake.”
Here’s a brief look at the three Valley races that are being watched:
REPUBLICAN SEEKS TO BEAT THE ODDS IN FARM BELT SHOWDOWN
On paper, California’s 22nd District in the state’s farm belt looks like a Democratic fortress. The party holds a 17-point edge in voter registration. But it’s here that Republican Rep. David Valadao is trying to win a return trip to Washington.
He’s proven resilient. Valadao, who emphasizes a bipartisan streak, has won in a heavily Democratic, largely Latino district before. He held his seat from 2013 until January 2019, lost it for a term, then won it back in a 2020 rematch with Democrat T.J. Cox.
He’s facing Democrat Rudy Salas in a newly redrawn district. Salas, a state assemblyman who is considered a moderate, has been dueling with Valadao over gas taxes, the opioid overdose crisis and health care. Registration numbers can be deceiving in the Central Valley.
OPEN SEAT SETS STAGE FOR TOSS-UP CONTEST IN FARM BELT
A new district in the Central Valley could go either way. Like other districts in the farm-belt region, the 13th District has a prominent Democratic tilt and a large Latino population. But the most likely voters tend to be white, older, more affluent homeowners, while working-class voters, including many Latinos, are less consistent in getting to the polls.
That provides a possible opening for the GOP, despite the 14-point Democratic registration advantage.
The top finisher in the June primary was Republican John Duarte, a businessman and major grape and almond farmer whose top priorities include obtaining adequate water supplies for farmers in the droughtwracked state — a perennial issue in the Central Valley — along with addressing inflation and crime.
His opponent, Democrat Adam Gray, is a state legislator known as a moderate. In a region heavily dependent on agriculture, he’s been critical of state water management and puts water and agriculture at the top of his issues
list. He has also stressed his willingness to work across party lines, and promised to make improvements in public safety and education.
POSSIBLE SURPRISE IN A TURBULENT YEAR
In the Central Valley, Democratic Rep. Josh Harder jumped into the Democratic-heavy 9th District after boundaries were reshaped, where he enjoys a 15-point registration advantage. In a challenging year for Democrats nationally, Republican Tom Patti, a county supervisor, is looking for an upset, but Harder has an upper hand given the district’s political breakdown, which includes a growing number of commuters with tech jobs in the San Francisco Bay Area.