New Hampshire presidential primary is Biden’s dilemma

They got it all wrong, and we see that failure in real time. The Democratic National Committee’s attempt to end the New Hampshire First-in-the-Nation Presidential Primary misfired. Despite their efforts, our state law mandating that our primary be at least a week before any other prevails. By law, the date of the election will be set by Secretary of State David Scanlan, probably for mid-January.

On the Republican side, there are 24 candidates, each paying $1,000 to be on our ballot. And while unlike Republicans, national Democrats tried to nullify our presidential primary, it didn’t work. There are 21 candidates on the Democratic ballot. Most are generally unknown, but we’ll hear from them in coming weeks.

That President Joe Biden is not on our ballot places an especially difficult burden on him. While in-state Democrats plan a write-in campaign for the President, they’ll likely come up short of the desired result.

I like Joe Biden. He has done great work for our country. But as I wrote a few months ago, I think he cannot win in November of 2024. By ending his candidacy now, he can focus on the important job at hand of defending the nation.

Shades of 1968 could be on the horizon as President Joe Biden stands the chance of repeating the display of loss of confidence that was rendered to President Lyndon Johnson that year. I’m familiar with that primary, because I was very involved in the write-in effort on behalf of the then-President.

That year, since incumbent President Johnson did not file in the N.H. Presidential Primary, a well-funded write-in campaign was put on by Democratic Party activists. An unknown Minnesota U.S. Senator, Eugene McCarthy, did file to protest the Vietnam War. There were a few other candidates too.

The primary on March 12th that year was the first test of support for President Johnson. Results came up way short of expectations. He received 27,520 votes, but McCarthy got 23,269. Others on the Democratic ballot accumulated 4,681 votes, meaning that 27,950 Democrats, a majority of those voting, selected someone other than the incumbent.

Wednesday’s morning headlines didn’t look good for President Johnson. He was embarrassed. Democrats nationwide encouraged New York U.S. Senator Robert F. Kennedy to run. By the end of the month, Johnson announced he would not seek reelection.

It is very possible that the national impact which our primary had in 1968 will be deja vu for President Biden. Like then, our primary will be the first real test at the ballot box of the popularity, or lack thereof, of the incumbent President.

New Hampshire Democrats who go to the polls in a few weeks have the opportunity to vote for those who are on the ballot, or write in candidates of their choice. They may write in “Joe Biden.” Or perhaps themselves, a friend, or the names of those who often get votes in national elections: “Donald Duck,” “Mickey Mouse,” and “Pluto.” It’s a dilemma for Joe Biden.

And consider this: If President Biden fails to obtain the majority of support from Democrats voting in our presidential primary, voters in other primary states will become aware of the power of their own write-in. They might use that technique on their ballots, while Republicans unify statewide and nationwide.

Then what?

I like Joe Biden. He has done great work for our country. But as I wrote a few months ago, I think he cannot win in November of 2024. By ending his candidacy now, he can focus on the important job at hand of defending the nation. There is time for other Democratic leaders to enter upcoming primaries and have forums so that voters can decide a strong nominee.

Splaine: Biden should withdraw, to allow full NH presidential primary (seacoastonline.com)

Joe Biden will be 82 on November 20, 2024, just two weeks after the election. Can we imagine the impact of a week of Republican events before the election featuring Biden birthday parties, banners, and cakes with 82 candles and lots of singing, reminding us of his age? Some smart Republican advertising consultant will think of that.

And then what?

Today’s quote: From the 1991 Seacoast Compact: “Our democracy flourishes only because we respect dissenters and we dissent respectfully, creating the dynamic essential to ensure continued political and economic progress.”

Next time: Optimism From Portsmouth’s Election Day.

Jim Splaine sponsored the 1975 law recognized as protecting our lead-off status by mandating that the N.H. presidential primary be held seven days or more before any similar election. He has served variously since 1969 as Portsmouth Assistant Mayor for 12 years, Police Commissioner and School Board member, as well as 6 years as State Senator and 24 years as State Representative. He can be reached at jimsplaineportsmouth@gmail.com