U.S.: Losses leave Russia short of goal
Putin hasn't ordered an unpopular full mobilization, but he is desperate to replace battlefield casualties
WASHINGTON >> The staggeringly high rate of Russian casualties in Ukraine means that President Vladimir Putin may not be able to achieve one of his key war objectives: seizing the entire eastern region of the country this year, officials in the Biden administration and military experts say.
With 500 Russian troops killed or wounded every day, according to the latest estimate by U.S. intelligence and military officials, Russia's war effort has decelerated to a grinding slog, the officials said.
Russia's glacial pace in the east has been further stymied by the arrival of American multiple-launch rocket systems, which have allowed Ukrainian troops to take back some territory and made it more difficult for Russian soldiers to reach other areas.
Earlier this summer, Russian forces captured the Luhansk region of Ukraine, the easternmost part of the country. But in neighboring Donetsk, their progress has stalled, in no small part because of heavy casualties, U.S. military officials said.
“I think it's safe to suggest that the Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months,” Colin Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, told reporters at the Pentagon on Monday, referring to deaths and injuries.
“They have made some incremental gains in the east, although not very much in the last couple of weeks, but that has come at extraordinary cost to the Russian military because of how well the Ukrainian military has performed and all the assistance the Ukrainian military has gotten.”
Two U.S. officials said that estimate of Russia's losses included about 20,000 deaths. Of that number, 5,000 are believed to be mercenaries from the Wagner Group, a private force with ties to Putin, and foreign fighters, one of the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
U.S. officials say their casualty estimates are based on satellite imagery, communication intercepts, social media and on-theground media reports.
The Russian government classifies troop deaths as state secrets. Ukraine has also sustained heavy casualties, the officials say. The Ukrainian government has been reluctant to disclose figures but has said 100 to 200 of its troops were being killed a day.
Because Ukraine has been at war with Russian separatists for almost a decade, it has a large pool of seasoned veterans available to the fight. Still, U.S. officials say the conflict has become the bloodiest land war in Europe since World War II.
As Russia continues to suffer losses in its invasion of Ukraine, now nearing its sixth month, the Kremlin has refused to announce a full-blown mobilization — a move that could be very unpopular for President Vladimir Putin. That has led instead to a covert recruitment effort that includes using prisoners to make up the shortage.
This also is happening amid reports that hundreds of Russian soldiers are refusing to fight and trying to quit the military.
“We're seeing a huge outflow of people who want to leave the war zone — those who have been serving for a long time and those who have signed a contract just recently,” said Alexei Tabalov, a lawyer who runs the Conscript's School legal aid group.