NO. 9 USC VS. ARIZONA: WHO HAS THE EDGE?
When: Today, 7:30 p.m. Where: Coliseum
TV/radio: ESPN/790 AM Line: USC by 21 1⁄2
Notable injuries: ARIZONA: QUESTIONABLE: QB Jayden de Laura (ankle), RB Michael Wiley (ankle); USC: QUESTIONABLE: WR Zachariah Branch (undisclosed), S Max Williams (undisclosed), CB Domani Jackson (undisclosed); OUT: DL Solomon Tuliaupupu (lower leg, season-ending surgery); OL Gino Quinones (lower leg, out for season)
What's at stake:
The USC offense's streak of 40-point games. Arizona's defense doesn't prickle with playmakers in the secondary, but coordinator Johnny Nansen's unit just turned in a pretty stellar performance against Washington, holding a rolling Huskies offense to 31 points in a narrow loss last Saturday. For all of the doomsday takes around USC's defense of late, the offense sputtered in the fourth quarter against Colorado, too, and is matching up against a Wildcats squad that has a clear sketched-out blueprint of how to slow an air-based attack. More on that later.
Who's better: The spread does a disservice to Arizona here, which chomped at the Huskies' heels in a seven-point loss. Even if quarterback de Laura – who is also in the midst of a sexual assault lawsuit after a settlement was rejected by a judge — doesn't play today, freshman Noah Fifita stepped up admirably against Washington and has a ready-made connection from his days at Servite High with sophomore receiver Tetairoa McMillan, a lanky receiver who could give USC's cornerbacks fits. That all being said, USC has a considerably more dynamic offense and deeper cupboard of playmakers, and absolutely demolished a Stanford team that nearly beat Arizona in late September.
Matchup to watch:
Arizona head coach Jedd Fisch vs. Lincoln Riley. Against Washington, Fisch said this week, the Wildcats drew up a clear plan: hold the ball for more than 30 minutes, never give the Huskies' offense more than a 75-yard field, substitute more often and grind down the play clock to keep the Washington offense off the field. It worked, as Fisch pointed out, and Arizona can apply a similar strategy against a USC team that fields a starkly similar attack.
Riley, though, was well aware of that plan, as evidenced by comments to reporters this week. And it will be fascinating to see how – or if – he adjusts the Trojans' offense to Arizona's desired tempo.
“That doesn't mean that's exactly what they're gonna do against us,” Riley said Thursday, “but it's obviously something we've got to be ready for.”
USC wins if: The secondary steps up from a pitiful effort against Colorado, and the defensive line forces enough negative plays to keep Fifita or de Laura from grinding away the clock. Also, if Riley opts to counter Arizona by controlling tempo himself instead of quick-hitting the Wildcats' defense, it could be a big game for MarShawn Lloyd. Prediction: USC 34, Arizona 21