Here’s a helpful checklist Dodgers can use for 2024
Today, we present the other October ritual: Our advice to the Dodgers on fixes after another playoff flameout. They may not listen, but we're always here to help.
• Clayton Kershaw: Dodger fans may be rooting for Texas to topple Houston in the American League Championship Series, but the rise of the Rangers has created serious competition for Kershaw should he choose to return in 2024. (And let's face it, I don't think anyone wants Game 1 of the Division Series against Arizona to be the last we see of Kershaw on the mound).
The Rangers, conveniently close to his off-season home in Dallas, have been the other suitor the last two winters. Now, with a fortified lineup and Bruce Bochy at the helm, they're a legitimate contender. Plus it's safe to assume Corey Seager will lobby his Kershaw to join the Rangers, and so might Max Scherzer. Kershaw took way below market value the last two years ($17 million and $20 million) to stay here. To continue and maybe end his career where he started it, the Dodgers may have to sweeten the pot.
• The DH role: The assumption is that the Dodgers trimmed payroll going into the season to make a serious run at Shohei Ohtani, which would be the reason they signed J.D. Martinez for one year at $10 million. They didn't quite get under the luxury tax, thanks to the albatross of Trevor Bauer's contract and the $23.5 million they had to eat when they released him.
With that off their books, the Dodgers could make enough other decisions this winter to shed between $81 million and $101 million in payroll. They're still considered the favorites to give Shohei the huge contract he merits, but they'd better have a Plan B in place, and maybe a plan C as well.
• Pitching, pitching, pitching: Friedman and GM Brandon Gomes failed at deadline day to reinforce their starting rotation in both 2022 and `23, and in both cases it cost them in October. Yes, they've got young guys in the pipeline, and yes, they expect Walker Buehler to be ready for spring training, but Dustin May likely won't be available until mid-year and Tony Gonsolin's magic number after Tommy John surgery is 2025. (And even if they sign Ohtani he won't be able to pitch next season).
So no, the traditional Dodger method of picking up a bunch of retreads and expecting one or two of them to turn into impact starters won't work this time. Among those who will be free agents: Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Aaron Nola, Jack Flaherty, Michael Lorenzen, Lucas Giolito, familiar faces HyunJin Ryu and Kenta Maeda ... and a fellow named Jordan Montgomery, whom you might have seen befuddling the Astros Sunday night. Plus another Japanese prodigy, 25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was 12-6 with a 1.16 ERA and 176 strikeouts in 171 innings for Japan's Orix Buffaloes this season.
Fun fact: The Dodgers used 36 different pitchers in 2023, not including three position players (Yonny Hernandez, Miguel Rojas and Luke Williams) who took the mound in lopsided games. The non-pitchers had a 3.60 ERA in their five appearances, and Rojas gave up both earned runs.
• Catching: Will Smith is a solid No. 1. But Austin Barnes has regressed so much offensively — a .180 batting average and .498 OPS in 2023 — that it's time to look for an alternative as the backup. Ordinarily it might be worth a look at prospect Diego Cartaya, but his offensive numbers at Double-A Tulsa were equally putrid (.189, .656, 117 strikeouts in 354 atbats).
• Platooning/depth: It worked during the regular season to the tune of 906 runs scored, and the guys toward the bottom of the order didn't bear as much responsibility for the Division Series slump as did the guys at the top. The group of David Peralta, Jason Heyward, Amed Rosario and Kiké Hernández was solid in the clubhouse and on the field and should return, though the Dodgers may have to decide if they think the 37-year-old Peralta, who signed for $6.5 million last off-season, has one more productive year left.
Rojas, originally signed as a backup infielder but a godsend when projected starting shortstop Gavin Lux wrecked his knee in spring training, will only bolster that bench upon Lux's return.
• Youngsters: We saw a lot of the Dodgers' farm system this year: James Outman's play in center field, Miguel Vargas' brief trial at second base, and the pitching of Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone and Ryan Pepiot among others. Vargas will get another shot in 2024, but Michael Busch should get a more intense look. Outfielders Jonny DeLuca and Andy Pages will also get plenty of runway in spring training.
• Contract options: Yes on Max Muncy at $10 million. No on Lance Lynn at $18 million. No on Blake Treinen (who has a “conditional” option reportedly between $1 million and $7 million depending on his health) or Daniel Hudson ($6.5 million, another older pitcher whose health has become a risk). Yes on Joe Kelly at $9.5 million.
• Free agents: Yes, obviously, on Kershaw if he wants to return. No on Lynn after his option is bought out at $1 million. Yes on Hernández, Heyward and Ryan Yarbrough. Maybe on Peralta, and maybe on Martinez if other
DH options don't materialize. Yes on Shelby Miller, who turned out to be a fairly significant piece of a really good bullpen. Maybe on Kolten Wong.
• And one hard no: The Dodgers' $14.5 million contractural obligation to Julio Urías technically ends the day after the World Series, but in reality he became a non-Dodger when he was arrested for the second time on domestic violence charges late on the evening of Sept. 3. He will be an anomaly this winter: A free agent with a gifted left arm for whom the market should be small to nonexistent.