As winter nears, Ukraine braces for energy grid attacks
Russian drone strikes near a nuclear power plant in western Ukraine this week have revived anxiety among Ukrainian officials and civilians over one of the most oppressive hardships of the war: a winter assault on their nation's energy grid.
The strikes Wednesday, which landed near the Khmelnytsky nuclear facility, drew an angry response from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, who said it was “highly likely” that the power plant was the target. They also prompted another warning from the head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog agency about the precarious nuclear safety situation in Ukraine.
Zelenskyy vowed Wednesday night that Ukraine would hit back at targets inside Russia if Moscow tried once again to plunge his nation into cold and darkness.
“This year, we will not only defend ourselves but also respond,” he said.
Unlike a year ago, Ukraine now has a growing fleet of long-range drones and has demonstrated an ability to hit military targets deep inside Russia.
Still, Ukraine remains vastly outgunned when it comes to long-range strike capabilities, and Ukrainian and Western officials have warned that it is likely that the Kremlin is stockpiling missiles to renew its assault on the energy grid as winter begins to bite.
The first Russian strikes specifically aimed at Ukrainian energy infrastructure in six months were reported Sept. 21, when the Ukrainian air force said it shot down 36 of 43 cruise missiles aimed at targets around the country. The attacks led to partial blackouts in the Rivne, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Dneprotrovsk and Kharkiv regions, Ukraine's state energy operator, Ukrenergo, said in a statement.
Since then, there have been few reported strikes involving Russian missiles — a period of quiet that is in itself unnerving.
“This may indicate a preparatory period for the enemy,” said Natalia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian southern command.
A year ago, Russia destroyed roughly 61% of Ukraine's electricity generation capacity while also targeting its water supply and internet access. Many civilians resorted to candles to light homes and bathed using buckets.
The attacks brought months of hardship for millions of Ukrainians. One couple, Andriy Veles and Tetiana Zubko, both 28, relied on the support and kindness of friends and neighbors last winter as they raised twin baby girls.
“The problem is not the blackouts,” Veles said. “The problem is no water, no heating, no cellular.” The couple, who live on the fifth floor of an apartment block in the capital, Kyiv, said the elevator broke; running water stopped; and they resorted to using candles, a gas stove, a large power bank and cans to store water. This winter, they would be better prepared, Zubko said.
Ukrainian energy providers also say they are better prepared to withstand a Russian onslaught this time. In particular, they said that many damaged facilities had been repaired, new equipment had been readied to provide spare capacity in case of attack, and defenses had been built around electricity substations and other pieces of critical infrastructure.
“We have learned our lessons from last winter,” said Maxim Timchenko, the CEO of DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company.
The Kyiv School of Economics estimated in early September that the cost of direct damage to Ukraine's energy infrastructure was more than $8.8 billion so far.
The campaign failed in large part because of the heroic work of utility workers to make urgent repairs even while under threat, as well as Ukraine's ability to draw power from neighboring countries in Europe and the outpouring of support.
Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the head of Ukrenergo, said that the winter war was in many ways a battle among engineers.
“The Russians are trying to figure out how to inflict as much damage as possible, what elements of the grid should be taken down,” he said in an interview this month. “We are trying to figure out how to bring back lights to businesses and households as quickly as possible.”