USC AT CAL: WHO HAS THE EDGE?
No. 24USC (6-2, 4-1) at Cal (3-4, 1-3) When: Today, 1p.m.
Where: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley TV/radio: Pac-12 Network/
790 AM
Line: USC by 101⁄2
Notable injuries: Cal: QUESTIONABLE: G Sioape Vatikani (leg), DL Ethan Saunders (undisclosed); USC: QUESTIONABLE: S Max Williams (undisclosed), CB Jacobe Covington (undisclosed), DL Bear Alexander (ejection-related suspension, out for first half)
What's at stake: For USC, a step toward a Pac-12title. The narrative of expectations within these Trojans' walls has shifted to reflect sagging results, first a reminder of an undefeated record to and undefeated record in conference play to second place in conference play! Hopes of a College Football Playoff and national title have all long but walked out the door, leaving a Pac-12championship as a still-juicy consolation prize. But Washington, Oregon and UCLA loom large on USC's schedule; a loss to Cal would mean unmitigated disaster, both to season hopes and overall program structure, with pressure intensifying on a recovering Lincoln Riley to make personnel changes.
Who's better: Even with recent struggles, it's USC by a wide stretch. Cal has a dynamic rushing attack led by Jaydn Ott, a Norco High product who's arguably the best back in California, but will start a freshman quarterback in
Fernando Mendoza with two full games of experience under his belt. For all the talk about the Trojans' defense, Cal enters 110th out of 133FBS schools in opponent points-per-game, got pummeled by Washington and Oregon State and has generated just a handful of sacks on the year. It's a prime chance for a noticeably-off Caleb Williams to get back on track.
Matchup to watch: USC's defensive line vs. Ott. Pretty obvious one here — USC just gave up 247 rushing yards to Utah and 203 two games earlier against Arizona. Ott is the best back they've faced all season, a shifty 200-pound escape artist who can explode at any given moment but was largely held in check by Utah's defense two weeks ago. After a strong start, this Trojans front has been carved up by the run, and will be further tested as nose tackle Alexander will serve a first-half suspension after being ejected for targeting against Utah.
This section could also read Lincoln Riley vs. pneumonia, as USC's head coach has been dealing with illness for more than a week now; he's improving, but there's a definite chance he's not manning the sidelines against Cal.
USC wins if: They limit Ott to less than 6yards a carry, and Williams looks like himself again.
Prediction: USC 41, Cal 28. This game won't be a blowout, but Williams should take over, similar to USC's September battle in the desert with Arizona State.