Furloughs, mother nature make for tough 2018 in Park
Rappahannock, other surrounding counties feel economic impact
The fact that Shenandoah National Park endured not one but two U.S. federal government shutdowns last year, not to mention much of Skyline Drive was closed during the latter months of the year by downed trees, all impacted the park’s 2018 visitor spending effects and economic contributions to Rappahannock County and other bordering communities. Last year, 1.3 million visitors to Shenandoah spent an estimated $86.9 million in local gateways that include Rappahannock County. That compares to 2017 visitor spending in the park’s surrounding communities of $95.8 million. All told, 2018 economic contributions to Shenandoah’s gateway communities like Rappahannock supported a total of 1,080 jobs, $44.5 million in labor income, $74.2 million in value added, and $116 million in economic output. The latter $116 million in economic output last year compares to $126 million in both 2017 and 2016. The 2015 output was $115 million.
Much of the southern portion of the park’s popular Skyline Drive, which cuts through Rappahannock County, was closed in November and December 2018 (all the way through April 2019) due to thousands of trees brought down by thick ice. Earlier in the year the problem was heavy winds. In addition, there were two federal government shutdowns last year— in January 2018 and December 2018 (into 2019), the latter the longest U.S. government shutdown in history. All of which might help explain the lower number of 1,080 jobs supported by Shenandoah’s economic contributions in 2018, compared to 1,200 jobs in 2017 and 1,280 in 2016. Three key pieces of information are required to estimate the economic effects of National Park Service (NPS) visitor spending in communities like Rappahannock: the number of visitors who visit each park, visitor spending patterns in local gateway regions, and regional economic multipliers that describe the economic effects of visitor spending in local economies. Visitation and spending data are derived from a variety of efforts by the NPS Social Science Program. Regional economic multipliers are derived from the IMPLAN software and data system. The Visitor Spending Effects model (VSE model) was developed by the NPS and the U.S. Geological Survey to combine these source data to estimate the economic contributions of NPS visitor spending. The NPS points out that before entering a park like Shenandoah visitors spend money in local communities, such as Etlan, Sperryville, or Flint Hill. The sales, income and jobs resulting from these purchases all represent the direct effects of visitor spending. Additional jobs and economic activity are supported when businesses purchase supplies and services from other local businesses thus creating indirect effects of visitor spending. In addition, employees use their income to purchase goods and services in the local economy, generating further induced effects of visitor spending. The sum of the indirect and induced effects give the secondary effects of visitor spending; and the sum of the direct and secondary effects give the total economic effect of visitor spending in a local economy, says the NPS. Economic input-output models capture these complex interactions between producers and consumers in an economy and describe the secondary effects of visitor spending through regional economic multipliers. Economic contributions, at the same time, describe the gross economic activity associated with National Park visitor spending within a regional economy. Economic contributions can be interpreted as the relative magnitude and importance to regional economies of the economic activity generated through National Park visitor spending. Shenandoah National Park’s $44.5 million in labor income in 2018 compares to $47.2 million in 2017 and $50 million in 2016. The $74.2 million added value last year compares to $79.3 million in 2017 and $79.1 in 2016.