NFL mock draft: QBs take stage; trade options linger
NFL draft week has arrived at last, Round 1 set to open Thursday night in downtown Detroit. Thirteen prospects will be in attendance, including the three quarterbacks widely projected to be the top three selections of this year’s “Player Selection Meeting” — former Southern California star Caleb Williams expected to hear his name called first by commissioner Roger Goodell.
Beyond that, some drama is certainly expected — notably the possibility of a major trade for one of the passers significantly shaking up the first round. Should be an eventful weekend as the league’s capstone offseason event unfolds.
Here’s my final projection for the initial 32 picks:
● 1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers): QB Caleb Williams, USC.
Any slim notion that the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner might be available to other teams evaporated with Justin Fields’ trade to Pittsburgh. Williams has drawn (unfair) comparisons to Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and peak Russell Wilson — which certainly means he’ll be expected to settle a position that’s usually been in flux in the Windy City for the past century.
● 2. Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU.
Some late-developing smoke over the past week regarding his interest in playing just outside the nation’s capital — though that’s eminently more likely than Daniels’ apparent mutual interest with the Raiders. No quarterback in this draft possesses the 2023 Heisman winner’s elite combination of running and passing ability, Daniels capable of a backbreaking bolt to the end zone via land or air.
● 3. New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina.
Though not a certainty Daniels goes second, feels like the draft’s first legit pivot point — whether it’s whom the Pats pick, quarterback or not, or if they potentially trade out of this spot entirely for what would certainly be a significant bounty of assets. Yet a team that has painfully witnessed Buffalo’s Josh Allen take its divisional throne might be too enticed by Maye, who has a somewhat comparable skill set.
● 4. Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State.
Rampant speculation that a trade could happen here given the Cards aren’t desperate for a franchise quarterback like so many other teams and have a general manager (Monti Ossenfort) who’s proven more than willing to execute a draft night blockbuster.
● 5. Minnesota Vikings (PROJECTED TRADE with Los Angeles Chargers): QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan.
The Vikes have been expected to deal up for a quarterback to replace departed starter Kirk Cousin since acquiring a second first-round pick from the Texans last month. And a move down makes sense for the Bolts, who are resetting from a personnel and cultural standpoint under a regime led by new HC Jim Harbaugh.
● 6. New York Giants: WR Malik Nabers, LSU.
Daniels’ primary target the past two seasons in Baton Rouge, Nabers really blossomed during a 2023 All-American campaign, when he caught 89 balls for 1,569 yards and 14 TDs. And if the Giants are compelled to move forward with QB Daniel Jones, which will almost certainly be the case regardless in 2024, giving him a bona fide weapon is obviously the sensible move.
● 7. Tennessee Titans: OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame.
The massive (6-9, 321), unanimous 2023 All-American — and son of legendary Chiefs lineman John Alt — is widely regarded as the best blocker in this draft and a plug-and-play blind side tackle for an offense that desperately needs one.
● 8. Atlanta Falcons: DE Laiatu Latu, UCLA.
While it’s almost universally expected they’ll opt for defense in Round 1, the Falcons are another squad in a unique spot — one likely to be coveted by others yet allows Atlanta to move down and accrue picks while still getting a top defender. However Latu could be a compelling option. The Pac-12’s defensive player of the year in 2023 Latu racked up 35 TFLs, 231⁄2 sacks, five forced fumbles and a pair of interceptions in two seasons with the Bruins.
● 9. Bears: WR Rome Odunze, Washington.
Trading down could be temping for Chicago, which has a draft-low four selections, as well. Yet the Bears, who have been busily building a proper supporting cast for Williams, are also dangerously thin at wideout behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, who will be 32 by Week 1 and is only under contract for this season.
● 10. New York Jets: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia.
Yet another team with a fascinating array of options. GM Joe Douglas, who knows he and HC Robert Saleh are on the hot seat entering this season, wouldn’t have far to go if he wants to get one of this draft’s elite wideouts. Despite an offensive line reinforced through free agency, this would also be a great spot to further fortify the blocking in front of QB Aaron Rodgers.
● 11. Chargers (PROJECTED TRADE with Vikings): OL Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State.
Harbaugh gets what he apparently covets here — an aggressive lineman who exemplifies the Bolts’ new philosophy. A right tackle for the Beavers, Fuaga is excellent in pass protection and especially nasty as a run blocker. He’ll be the first Round 1 O-lineman in Oregon State’s history.
● 12. Denver Broncos: QB Bo Nix, Oregon.
It might seem like a steep price for a passer who’s somewhat unremarkable physically, and maybe the Broncos — this is their only pick in the top 75 — can trade back and still get Nix. They were only too willing to eat Russell Wilson’s high-calorie contract, however Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci seem like a crash diet.
● 13. Las Vegas Raiders: DE/OLB Dallas Turner, Alabama.
Co-Defensive Player of the Year in the SEC last season while racking up 10 sacks, he has a case as this draft’s premier defensive prospect — one who can bend around blockers and maybe change this D’s complexion. Turner would add more juice to the defense of new HC Antonio Pierce, a former linebacker himself.
● 14. New Orleans Saints: OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State.
Given the performance, or lack thereof, thus far by ex-first-round LT Trevor Penning plus the knee issues and cost associated with RT Ryan Ramczyk, the Nittany Lions’ 2023 All-American makes too much sense — particularly given the amount of abuse (physical and otherwise) taken by QB Derek Carr in 2023.
● 15. Indianapolis Colts: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo.
He’s got size (6-0, 195), blazing speed (4.33 40 time) and ball skills, two of his six interceptions over the past two seasons turned into pick-sixes. And Indy needs cover help outside, particularly in a division where enemy QBs C.J. Stroud and Trevor Lawrence are bound to put the ball in the air frequently.
● 16. Seattle Seahawks: DT Byron Murphy II, Texas.
New HC Mike Macdonald made his bones as a defensive coach and joins a franchise that watched the Rams’ Aaron Donald wreck shop for a decade. The NFL is also increasingly reliant on players who can disrupt quarterbacks up the middle — something Murphy can do effectively and likely much more so if teamed alongside veteran DT Leonard Williams.
● 17. Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama.
The first-team All-American features confidence, production and toughness. And the Jags live in a world where they better be ready to defend the AFC South champion Texans and a suite of playmakers that now includes WR Stefon Diggs at Stroud’s disposal.
● 18. Cincinnati Bengals: OL Troy Fautanu, Washington.
This team usually drafts ahead of its needs, yet offensive line has been a perennial one since QB Joe Burrow came to town in 2020. An All-Pac-12 performer with sweet feet, Fautanu has All-Pro ability and the versatility to thrive at tackle or guard.
● 19. Los Angeles Rams: DE Jared Verse, Florida State.
Replacing retired Donald isn’t going to be a one-for-one proposition. But Verse would be a nice start given his high motor and effectiveness against both the run and pass. A first-team All-American during both of his seasons with the Seminoles, he registered nine sacks in each.
● 20. Pittsburgh Steelers: WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU.
The 6-3, 209-pounder put down a 4.33 40 at the combine in the wake of a season when he had 1,177 yards on 68 catches — a quarter of those receptions resulting in TDs. And with Diontae Johnson now in Carolina and newly signed free agents Van Jefferson and Quez Watkins currently the best options at WR2, an upgrade opposite George Pickens — and he has consistency issues himself — seems like a sizable priority.
● 21. Miami Dolphins: OL Graham Barton, Duke.
A left tackle for the Blue Devils, the two-time All-ACC selection is likely headed inside in the NFL due to his relatively short arms. And the Fins could use help there after losing Connor Williams, apparently, and Robert Hunt during free agency.
● 22. Philadelphia Eagles: OT JC Latham, Alabama.
His defensive needs aside, if a blocker with this much potential is available, could Philly EVP/GM Howie Roseman really help himself? The 6-6, 342-pound Latham has experience at guard, and there’s a hole there with Cam Jurgens sliding into the center spot vacated by retired Jason Kelce.
● 23. Chargers (PROJECTED TRADE with Cleveland Browns via Houston Texans and Vikings): WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia.
The Bolts’ trade with Minnesota allows them to address two glaring needs in Round 1 — offensive line and, here, receiver following the departures of starters Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. McConkey would provide Herbert with a reliable option either outside or from the slot, where he could maybe best complement 2023 first-rounder Quentin Johnston, who struggled as a rookie.
● 24. Dallas Cowboys: OL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon.
Plenty of needs for a team that has been restricted from doing much with free agents due to its bloated salary cap. The 2023 Rimington Trophy winner as the country’s best college center, “JPJ” — who excels as a run and pass blocker — could replace departed C Tyler Biadasz or slide one spot to the left and allow LG Tyler Smith to kick out to the longtime post vacated by LT Tyron Smith. Also worth noting, RG Zack Martin is out of contract in 2025.
● 25. Green Bay Packers: OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma.
Well, we know GM Brian Gutekunst won’t take a receiver at this spot. Guyton, a former tight end incidentally, would bring high-end potential and flexibility to a line that’s lost LT David Bakhtiari and G Jon Runyan Jr. Guyton played some left tackle for the Sooners but was mostly on the right side. That could provide options in Green Bay, where incumbent OT Zach Tom has also lined up on either end of the line.
● 26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE Chop Robinson, Penn State.
His eye-popping athleticism — the 6-3, 254-pounder ran a sub-4.5 40 at the combine — doesn’t necessarily align with his production, which included 91/2 sacks and 171/2 TFLs in two seasons with the Nittany Lions. But he could be a real asset to a defense that was reliant on the blitz in 2023 and just lost OLB Shaq Barrett.
● 27. Cardinals (from Texans): DL Darius Robinson, Missouri.
The 6-5, 285-pound All-SEC selection has the size and athleticism to play inside or out while thriving against the run or pass — all traits a defense that’s weak up front and allowed the second-most points in the league in 2023 could badly use.
● 28. Buffalo
Mitchell, Texas.
After divorcing themselves from Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason, the Bills clearly need to replenish the wideout position beyond free-agent gadget signing Curtis Samuel. Mitchell has Velcro hands, postseason bona fides, size (6-2, 205) and exceptional speed (4.34 40 time) — a combo that should dovetail with Josh Allen, who likes to go deep but can benefit from a larger catch radius on intermediate throws.
● 29. Raiders (PROJECTED TRADE with Detroit Lions): QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington.
A strong pro day certainly didn’t damage his stock. If not for his history of knee and shoulder problems, which predates Penix’s time with the Huskies, he’d probably be projected as a top-10 selection. So trading back into the first round to get him could be a real steal for Las Vegas, while also allowing the Lions — GM Brad Holmes has indicated he’s committed to strengthening the roster without necessarily making a bold move for the reigning NFC North champs — to build capital, likely adding a second- and third-round pick in this scenario.
● 30. Baltimore Ravens: OT Amarius Mims, Georgia.
A right tackle who already knows OC Todd Monken’s playbook, Mims’ 87-inch wingspan and 6-8, 340-pound frame help him block out the sun (perhaps better than the moon). He could start straight away following the trade of previous RT Morgan Moses to the Jets.
● 31. San Francisco 49ers: DT Johnny Newton, Illinois
The Big Ten’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, who’s 6-2 and 304 pounds, is strong, tough, twitchy and certainly disruptive enough to upgrade and deepen the Niners’ precious D-line, which took some hits in free agency.
● 32. Kansas City Chiefs: OT Jordan Morgan, Arizona.
It would be fun to give the champs a toy like Texas WR Xavier Worthy, who set the combine record with a 4.21 40yard dash. But a gaping hole seemingly remains on Mahomes’ blind side. Too big a need to ignore unless LT Donovan Smith re-signs or HC Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach have a yet-to-be revealed plan that makes more sense than gambling on unproven Wanya Morris.
Bills: WR Adonai