Rosier outlook for COVID-19 storm
♦ But local healthcare executives say more and faster tests are key to the end of social distancing.
Local healthcare executives are unanimous in their assessment that the COVID-19 health emergency has not been as bad locally as they initially feared.
However, Floyd Medical Center President Kurt Stuenkel, Redmond Regional Medical Center CEO John Quinlivan and Harbin Clinic CEO Kenna Stock each cautioned community leaders that the peak might not have been reached yet.
All three spoke to members of the Rome Rotary Club via Zoom Thursday. The web conferencing app has become a staple for groups who need to hold a meeting in times of social distancing.
Stuenkel said FMC had been modeling a worst case scenario several weeks ago.
“Thankfully our data right now shows us, perhaps not a worst case scenario, but a best case scenario,” Stuenkel said.
Both FMC and Redmond stopped elective procedures in the hospitals early on, to make sure sufficient resources would be available for a surge in COVID-19 cases.
“Now we’re going to loosen up a little bit because our statistics are showing that perhaps the steep curve of infected individuals is not going to hit us as we thought,” Stuenkel said. “But we’re still nevertheless, here at Floyd, preparing for what could happen.”
The original projections at Redmond were for as many as 91 patients in the Intensive Care Unit.
“Our ICU capacity is 40,” Quinlivan said. “As we built our expansion — we have a plan to expand that up to 82 — 91 would have almost been unmanageable.”
His current projection calls for a peak around April 22 with as many as six COVID-19 patients in the ICU at the same time.
“We’ve got four in the ICU right now,” he said.
Quinlivan offered some insight into why the virus has hammered New York harder than any other major metropolitan city in the country.
He said 41% of the deaths from COVID-19 in the U.S. have occurred in New York and 94% of those happened in New York City. The population density in New York is about 200 times as dense as the rest of the country.
“About half the residents of New York City use public transportation, so it’s really hard for them to implement social distancing in a situation like that,” Quinlivan said. “I think that demonstrates how important it is that we create that social distance.”
The Harbin Clinic CEO said social distancing remains crucial in light of the need for more widespread testing for the coronavirus. She said that getting additional test kits — and resolving the bottleneck in getting results back — are still major challenges.
“We agree, we are united in that we need more testing,” Stock said. “Until we have that, we’re going to continue to inadvertently spread it when we otherwise could be managing it to a greater degree.”
Initially, the average length of stay for patients under investigation for COVID-19 at Redmond was seven and a half days.
“On average, we weren’t getting lab tests back until after they were discharged — and about 85% of those were negative,” Quinlivan said. “Yet we used eight days worth of personal protective equipment taking care of them because we didn’t know that.”
Stuenkel also said that the FMC staff has expressed some concerns about people who have intentionally delayed care because they were afraid of going to the hospital.
One physician shared that there is a patient in their ICU now who, had he come in two or three days earlier, could have been treated and back home by now.
“People do not need to be staying at home worrying that hey, I might be exposed to coronavirus if I go to the hospital,” Stuenkel said.
Stock also touted the way the competitive local healthcare organizations have allied for the common good during the public health emergency.
“It’s been some of our proudest moments, honestly,” Stock said. “How we’ve come together as healthcare providers to do what we hope is right for our community.”
Physicians affiliated with Harbin Clinic serve both Floyd Medical Center and Redmond Regional Medical Center.