Ukraine grain challenge involves clearing mines, finding ships and trusting Putin
Ukraine finally secured a deal aimed at restarting crucial Black Sea grain exports that have been crippled by Russia’s invasion. But getting them going won’t be easy.
Government officials from Kyiv and Moscow on Friday signed parallel agreements with Turkey and the United Nations at a meeting in Istanbul intended to help revive shipments from one of the world’s top wheat, corn and vegetable-oil exporters. That could be good news for a strained global food market and Ukraine’s economy that’s been wrecked by the war.
Yet even now with the accord, it will take time for traders and officials to kick-start the flows. Ukraine faces the task of clearing a pathway in mined seas, finding enough ships to carry the backlogged grain and rerouting trains and trucks that are now being used elsewhere. Getting insurance to cover operations is a challenge, too.
The plan’s success also hinges on Moscow’s security assurances and President Vladimir Putin living up to his side of the bargain, at a time when the Kremlin is moving to annex occupied lands and continues to advance in Ukraine’s east. Analysts and western officials are skeptical over how quickly Ukraine can resume its role as a global agricultural powerhouse.
“While active military operations are taking place on the territory of Ukraine, being in the waters of Ukrainian ports will remain extremely dangerous,” said Andriy Kupchenko, head of analytics at local consultant APK-Inform. Ukraine’s exports are unlikely to return to “optimal” levels this season, he said.
In a sign of how strained the situation is, Ukraine signed an agreement with Turkey and the UN, rather than directly with Russia — with Russia mirroring an accord with Turkey and the UN. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff said earlier Ukraine won’t allow escorts by Russian ships or have its representatives in Ukraine’s ports.
Scores of crop vessels have been stuck in Ukraine since the war began, forcing the country to turn to rail and truck routes and river ports — which can handle much smaller volumes. When Black Sea ports reopen, securing ships and finding insurers willing to back up cargoes heading there could prove difficult and expensive.
Specialist insurers may take on cargoes, especially given their humanitarian nature, said Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at Lloyd’s Market Association. But logistics details would need to be resolved to ensure workers are available to handle and load grain.
“Opening the ports would be fantastic, at least the 80 or 90 or so vessels stuck there can get out,” Lucas Dorrestein, the global head of operations at crop trader Viterra, said this week. “But then the next steps are going to be quite complicated.”
Ukraine had as much as 25 million tons of backlogged grain by mid-year and farmers are now in the midst of their next wheat harvest. While some supplies are at or near ports, farmers and traders will need safe routes to continue deliveries. The southern region remains dangerous and infrastructure has been damaged, which could limit progress, APK-Inform’s Kupchenko said.