Trump Mar-a-lago search was unprecedented, but a records case will be tough to prove in court
The search of former President Donald Trump’s home in Florida was unprecedented, but bringing a case will be difficult and — if successful — even the punishment would be open to legal fights.
Federal investigators on Monday descended on Mar-a-lago as part of an investigation into whether Trump took classified documents from the White House when he left office, an explosive development that risks hanging over his possible run for the presidency in 2024.
While the search is “uncharted territory” for the U.S., it isn’t a foregone conclusion that Trump is in serious legal jeopardy, said former federal prosecutor Jennifer Rodgers.
“The bar for charging classified information cases is very high, and a Presidential Records Act criminal violation is unlikely for a variety of reasons having to do with the statutory language of the relevant crimes and the potential penalties,” she said.
Among those penalties is the prospect that any conviction might bar Trump from holding office again.
Marc Elias, the former general counsel for Hillary Clinton’s campaign, called the incident “a potential blockbuster in American politics.”
In a Twitter post, Elias highlighted the portion of the penal code that says those found guilty of the concealment, removal or mutilation of government records shall be “disqualified from holding any office under the United States.” It isn’t clear if that law would apply to a presidential run, but Elias wrote that having to fight in court over that question could be a major barrier to another Trump run.
Even if disqualification from the White House is off the table, a conviction for mishandling government records and classified materials would still carry the possibility of prison time.
The FBI search shows that investigators were able to get a warrant from a federal judge after a finding of probable cause that evidence of a specific crime will be found on the premises, said Barbara Mcquade ,a law professor at the University of Michigan and a former federal prosecutor. It doesn’t mean that a judge found probable cause to believe that a specific person committed the crime, at this stage of an investigation.
“When the FBI conducts a search, they bring large numbers of agents so that they can search each room in teams and document a chain of custody for every item they seize so that they can testify in court about it later,” she said. Regardless of the specific impetus for the raid, “once the FBI lawfully enters the premises, agents may seize any evidence in plain view.”