San Antonio Express-News (Sunday)
Time is running out to save fall season
Stunning moves by the Big Ten and Pac-12 might only be prolonging the inevitable
In the span of 24 hours, millions of dollars and nonconference football games were wiped from the books for many non-Power Five schools.
Recent decisions by the Big Ten and Pac-12 to play conference-only games for fall sports, including football, because of ongoing concerns over the coronavirus pandemic sent shockwaves throughout the lower divisions of college football. Those schools annually rely on the often $1 million-plus payouts to be punching bags for heavyweights such as Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Southern Cal to help subsidize athletic budgets for the rest of the year.
“College football is blowing up before our eyes,” ESPN commentator Paul Finebaum said Friday.
On Wednesday, the Ivy League became the first Division I conference to announce it would not play sports in the fall.
A day later, the Big Ten, “facing uncertain and unprecedented times,” said it would move to a conference-only season for fall sports.
On Friday, the Pac-12 made a similar announcement amid reports that the three remaining Power Five conferences (SEC, Big 12 and ACC) would follow suit in the coming weeks.
“The direct reality is not good,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said on ESPN Radio’s “Marty & McGee” on Saturday. “I want to provide the opportunity for college athletics to be part of the fall, but we need to all consider our behavior to make possible what right now appears very difficult.”
Sankey added, “We are running out of time to correct and get things right.”
Schools can begin working directly with players Monday, followed by the start of training camps in early August. That timetable almost assuredly will be adjusted with the Big Ten and Pac-12 pushing back the start of the season and essentially buying some time.
If the events of the past week are any indication, the college football season is hanging by a thread. At best there will be abbreviated seasons, likely with eight-, nine- or 10-game schedules. With no nonconference games, the start of the season could be pushed to late September or early October to give teams time to prepare.
If COVID-19 cases continue to surge, could the season be played in the spring?
Is it even worth it?
“We may not have college sports in the fall,” Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren told the league’s TV network.
As COVID-19 put sports on hold in March, forcing the cancellation of the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments, college leaders remained optimistic there was enough time for things to turn around. But as schools began to reopen campuses for voluntary workouts June 1, the doors often were closed just as quickly because of COVID-19 outbreaks discovered through school-mandated testing protocols.
The University of Houston, which did not test athletes upon their return to campus, became the first athletic program to shut down after six positive cases less than two weeks after reopening.
In the past week, Ohio State and North Carolina have suspended workouts. Through Wednesday, at least 426 college athletes at roughly 50 Division I programs had tested positive for coronavirus, according to the New York Times. At least 67 total football players have tested positive at LSU and Clemson — the teams that played in the national title game in January.
“Two months ago, I was cautiously optimistic, but I’ve lost that,” Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith said on a conference call with reporters. He added: “I am concerned we may not be able to play.”
That
possibility
has
most schools bracing for the financial ramifications of no college football season, not to mention the economic destruction in communities such as Tuscaloosa, Ala., Auburn, Ala., College Station, Knoxville, Tenn., Gainesville, Fla., Athens, Ga., Clemson, S.C., Baton Rouge, La., and Starkville, Miss., to name a few, that rely on packed crowds for Saturday games. Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox said no football would be “economically catastrophic” and could result in about $2 billion in lost revenue.
And if football is played, how many fans will be allowed through the gates? Fifty percent capacity? Twenty-five? No fans at all?
COVID-19 outbreaks continue to spike in football hotbeds Texas, Florida and Arizona, along with rising cases across the footballcrazed South. More than 3.1 million have been diagnosed with COVID-19 in the U.S., with 134,000 deaths.
Texas, home to 12 FBS schools, had 10,201 new cases reported Saturday, and Gov. Greg Abbott has said another stay-at-home order is possible.
For college football to move forward with any confidence, cases would need to significantly drop in the next three to four weeks.
Schools have been preparing for the worst since the spring, when the NCAA Tournament cancellation resulted in a drop of distributed revenue from $600 million to about $225 million. And it’s only getting worse as the COVID-19 outbreak now impacts the fall.
Even name-brand schools are not immune from the COVID-19 fallout, with Oklahoma announcing $13.7 million in budget cuts and Florida State cutting its budget by 20 percent. Coaches and athletic administrators at other schools have taken pay cuts.
At Houston, athletic director Chris Pezman announced several cost-cutting measures last week, including a 7.5 percent budget reduction and layoffs.
“If football is impacted, we’re all going to be significantly impacted,” Pezman said shortly after the shutdown.
At least 171 sports programs from four-year schools have been cut — including 51 from Division I — since the pandemic began, according to research by the Associated Press. Most recently, Stanford, one of the nation’s top athletic programs, cut 11 of its 36 varsity sports. The school projects a $70 million shortfall over the next three years.
“If it can happen at Stanford, it can happen any place,” Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said. “They’re the broadest, most successful program in the history of college athletics, and so to see them drop a third of their program is a shocking thing.”
Among the high-profile games that will not be played because of the Big Ten and Pac-12 announcements: Michigan at Washington, Ohio State at Oregon, Michigan
State vs. Miami, Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame at Green Bay’s Lambeau Field and Southern Cal vs. Notre Dame (at AT&T Stadium in Arlington).
So far, Houston’s only game to be canceled is a Sept. 12 contest at Washington State. Also in jeopardy: Rice’s Sept. 19 game against defending national champion LSU at NRG Stadium.
The pandemic shutdown already has tightened financial belts at most schools in Group of Five conferences (American Athletic, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) which now must deal with the loss of seven-figure payouts for socalled “buy” games.
Putting together a schedule as an independent can be tricky (unless your name is Notre Dame), and within the span of a day BYU had nearly half of its games — against Utah, Michigan State, Arizona State, Minnesota and Stanford — canceled because of the Big Ten and Pac-12 decisions. A game against Missouri (SEC) likely will be called off as well, and the chances are slim that Houston travels to Provo in mid-October.
The ACC said it will help with scheduling for Notre Dame, the most recognizable football independent.
The loss of payouts for 139 nonconference football games involving Power Five teams could cost smaller programs nearly $122 million, according to a review of contracts by USA Today. Schools might get some of the money depending on language in the contract, or “Force Majeure,” a common clause that accounts for “acts of God” or unforeseeable events that make a game impossible to play. Schools also could negotiate a settlement or seek legal action.
The Mid-American Conference could be especially hit hard with the mass cancellations. Kent State reportedly was set to make $5 million for three games against Penn State, Kentucky and Alabama; Bowling Green had projected payouts of $2.2 million for games against Ohio State and Illinois; and Buffalo was to make $1.8 million for a game at Ohio State. New Mexico State, an FBS independent, was set to make $2.7 million for games against Florida and UCLA.
Like BYU, Hawaii learned Friday just how quickly a schedule can evaporate, losing three games against Pac-12 teams Arizona, Oregon and UCLA. It was to be the Rainbow Warriors’ first time to host UCLA in 80 years. A fourth game, against Fordham of the Patriot League, already had been canceled.
“As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact college sports nationally, the NCAA supports its members as they make important decisions based on their specific circumstances and in the best interest of college athletes’ health and well-being,” the NCAA said in a statement.