O’Rourke is better positioned for run for governor

If Beto O’Rourke decides to run for Texas governor next year, he’ll be in a much better position than he was two years ago, when he abandoned his presidential campaign after failing to break out from a crowded Democratic field.

While the El Paso native would still be an underdog in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards in 1990, the last year has been one of revival for O’Rourke, thanks to some of his own actions and those of Republicans and other Democrats.

The former congressman still hasn’t decided whether he’ll run for governor next year, according to one of his most trusted advisers, despite published reports to the contrary last week, citing sources who asked not to be identified.

“No decision has been made,” said David Wysong, who was deeply involved in O’Rourke’s 2018 U.S. Senate campaign. O’Rourke surprised pundits when he came within 3 points of unseating Republican incumbent Ted Cruz.

O’Rourke, who turns 49 on Sunday, has said since January that he’s considering running against Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. He repeated that on Friday during an interview at The Texas Tribune Festival, but offered no timetable on when he would decide.

“It’s something I’m thinking about,” he said, adding that he’s listening to Texans as he weighs his options.

Then O’Rourke ticked off a number of reasons he’s thinking about a campaign: “the deep damage and chaos and incompetence that is connected to Greg Abbott from the winter freeze, the abortion ban, the permitless carry (law), the anti-mask mandate, the terrible toll that COVID has taken on this state and where it has decimated populations

the border like in my hometown of El Paso.”

Dave Carney, a political adviser to Abbott, said the governor is more than ready to take on O’Rourke.

“Come and get it,” he said. “His overdramatic Hamlet schtick has become tiresome.”

Despite his high name recognition and proven fundraising abilities, O’Rourke would face a tough road if he runs for the state’s highest office. When his presidential campaign unceremoniously ended in Iowa in fall 2019, he had gone from an early contender and fundraising dynamo to an also-ran who struggled to raise money and cratered in the polls — particularly after Joe Biden got into the race.

As moderate Democrats increasingly turned to Biden, O’Rourke appeared to drift left on some of the big issues of the day, such as gun control. After a mass shooting at a Walmart in El Paso that ultimately left 23 dead, O’Rourke declared in Houston that he supported a mandatory buyback of AR-15s and other powerful assault weapons from gun owners. That alone has many Republicans convinced O’Rourke cannot win statewide in traditionally red Texas.

But over the last year, O’Rourke has demonstrated something that previous Democrats who lost Senate races lacked: political staying power. After their defeats in U.S. Senate races, Democrats including David Alameel, Paul Sadler and Rick Noriega faded from the political landscape quickly.

O’Rourke has instead reemerged as a leader within the Democratic Party in Texas, even if he doesn’t have a title, potentially poised to capitalize on Abbott’s sagging approval ratings.

If he runs, here are five ways O’Rourke has either helped himself or been helped by others:

ABBOTT’S PRIMARY CHALLENGERS:

From the minute Republicans Don Huffines and Allen West started talking about challenging Abbott in the Republican primary for governor, Abbott has been shoring up his GOP base with a steady diet of redmeat issues, including banning mask mandates to fight the COVID-19 pandemic that has claimed the lives of more than 62,000 Texans; signing a ban on abortions after six weeks with no exceptions for rape or incest victims; pushing through new voter restrictions in the wake of former President Donald Trump’s baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen; and winning passage of $2 billion for fencing and police at the Texas border. While all those play well in a GOP primary, public polling shows his support with independent voters — once Abbott’s strong suit — has eroded.

The latest polls from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas show Abbott’s approval rating among independents has dropped from 54 percent after his re-election win in 2018 to 30 percent now. That is where O’Rourke was most successful against Cruz in 2018.

Exit polls showed O’Rourke won 50 percent of independent voters in 2018.

DEMOCRATIC WALKOUT: By the time the November 2022 election rolls around, the walkouts staged by Texas House Democrats to try to block the Republicans’ big elections bill may be largely forgotten by many voters, but O’Rourke won a lot of friends in the party with his outspoken criticism of what Democrats viewed as voter suppression. O’Rourke used his platform to lead two rallies at the Texas Capitol, drawing naalong tional attention to many of the Democrats who led the walkout.

Meanwhile, O’Rourke’s political action committee picked up the tab for the Democrats’ lodgings in D.C.

PAC HELP: After his presidential campaign ended, O’Rourke created a political action committee called Powered by People that has raised and spent millions for voter registration efforts and to support Democratic candidates, particularly for the Texas Legislature.

Since O’Rourke lost his U.S. Senate race by 215,000 votes in 2018, his group claims to have assisted more than 200,000 voters sign up. Texas has added about 1 million voters since 2018.

FREEZE AND PANDEMIC: While it is hard to predict the big issues in any election a year from now, the deaths of nearly 200 people from the electric grid failures during the February freeze and of tens of thousands from COVID-19 seem likely to give Democrats two issues to put the GOP on defense.

O’Rourke offered a hint of how the argument can be made after the power failures: “These jokers can’t even keep the lights on,” O’Rourke said at a rally in front of the Capitol during the spring.

WHITE HOUSE ALLIES: When O’Rourke ran in 2018, Trump held a rally in Texas to support Cruz and regularly attacked O’Rourke on social media. With Biden now in the White House, O’Rourke, who threw his support to the Delaware Democrat on the eve of the pivotal Super Tuesday primaries, should have allies to help his campaign if he needs them.

Not only did O’Rourke famously take Biden out to Whataburger for dinner, but his former campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, is now Biden’s deputy chief of staff.

O’Rourke