San Antonio Express-News (Sunday)
Republicans’ shadow campaign underway
One day last month, Mike Pence secretly huddled with some of Michigan’s top political donors, including the kingmaking DeVos family, as he pitched his vision for the Republican Party before flying to Georgia to campaign against former President Donald Trump’s choice for governor.
U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., has developed a long PowerPoint presentation about how previous candidacies for president failed — and has shown it to donors and others during meetings on how he would run a successful campaign.
Advisers and allies of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, meanwhile, have discussed the margins for his 2022 re-election that would help put him in position to run for president in 2024 — aiming to beat the 3 percentage point margin that separated Trump and President Joe Biden in the state in 2020.
With months to go before the midterm elections, the shadow campaign for the 2024 Republican nomination is well underway, with at least 15 potential candidates traveling the country, drawing up plans, huddling with donors or testing out messages at various levels of preparation. The quadrennial circus — described by more than 20 people with direct knowledge who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private machinations — has kicked into gear despite the public hints from Trump that he plans to join the scrum “a third time.”
Interviews with over a dozen GOP operatives indicate he is not clearing the field, and a range of candidates plan to take him on from different angles.
“They’re all going to run against him,” said Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s longtime pollster. “If you have the former vice president running, what does that say for the loyalty argument?”
Some candidates and their teams have made clear that they plan to campaign on moving the party beyond Trump, who continues to dominate early polling, while the vast majority are simply plodding forward without addressing the Trump question publicly and in some cases continuing to praise him. They have been encouraged by growing concern among deep-pocketed Republican donors that another Trump run — especially an announcement before the midterms — would help Democrats.
Early appearances
At least six senators have made appearances in Iowa or New Hampshire already, joining former Trump advisers and appointees such as Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley. Nine potential candidates, including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, have spoken at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, laying out their vision for the future
of the party, with Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., a prominent Trump critic with a national profile, scheduled to speak there June 29. Pompeo in particular has been aggressive at working donors and operatives, asking many what he needs to do to win the nomination. Pompeo has told others he would run against Trump, though he has not made a final decision, people who have spoken to him say.
“They are working hard at it, some more than others,” said Ron Kaufman, a Republican National Committee member from Massachusetts who had a set of potential candidates over to his house in March as part of a fundraiser for the New Hampshire state party. In addition to Cotton, GOP Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Tim Scott of South Carolina and Rick Scott of Florida spoke at the event.
Trump and his allies have begun preparing for an onslaught of competition, as several of Trump’s closest advisers continue to urge him not to announce a campaign before the midterm
elections because they fear it would help Democratic efforts to frame Senate and congressional campaigns around the divisive former president.
“I would be very surprised if they run,” Trump said in an interview this year. But he has begun asking advisers how he should attack some of his former Cabinet members and allies, as well as candidates he previously endorsed. DeSantis poses particular problems, two advisers said, because he has gained such favor with Trump’s base.
Barriers for Trump
In Iowa, which is expected to host the first Republican caucus in 2024, political power brokers such as Bob Vander Plaats, the president of the Family Leader, a Christian conservative group, have been telling people that even if Trump runs there is a good chance of a contested campaign.
“If you come at Trump from the left — say a Mitt Romney approach — I don’t think that would ever work,” Vander Plaats said. “If you came at Trump from the right — more like a Pence or a Pompeo or a Ted Cruz or a DeSantis — then I think people would be willing to listen.”
In addition to the growing candidate competition, Trump is facing declining influence among the Republican high-dollar donor community that supported his 2020 campaign, as many fear the risks of another Trump candidacy, according to multiple people familiar with the discussions. In conversations with RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and others, some of the party’s top donors have suggested the party needs to move on, according to the people.
DeSantis has been quietly building his fundraising networks while grabbing national headlines for his challenges to the Biden administration and for his focus on culture war issues. Without mentioning Trump, he has told donors, “No one’s nomination is inevitable,” according to a person to whom his comments have been relayed.
A spokesman for DeSantis’ re-election campaign, David Abrams, said the governor is “focused on winning a resounding re-election this fall in Florida because that’s what’s best for the future of Florida.” He called suggestions of other motives “nonsense.”
DeSantis has been picking up support in far-flung places, besting Trump in a recent straw poll at a conservative gathering in Colorado.
“I think DeSantis is the only one besides Trump who has a chance in hell. And I would bet a lot of money on that,” said Darren Blanton, a Dallas-based venture capitalist who served as an adviser to Trump’s transition.
Blanton said potential candidates have to show that they can turn blue-collar Democrats into Republicans. “And I just don’t think a pasty, old-school, dignified Republican is ever going to do that again,” he said.