San Antonio Express-News (Sunday)
Answering the major questions before training camp begins
HOUSTON — The Texans completed their mandatory minicamp June 16, and now a summer separates the franchise from a crucial training camp that begins July 29 and will establish just how much progress the team can make in the second season of a massive rebuild.
Several starting spots remain up for grabs, and there's always a possibility general manager Nick Caserio adds a few more players within a 90-man training camp roster that has already been significantly revamped with nine new draft picks and 23 veterans acquired by trade, waiver claim or free agency.
Is the influx of new talent enough to avoid another process-oriented season? Oddsmakers aren't expecting the Texans to notably improve in 2022. The franchise's predicted win total hovers at 4.5 (the same projection as a year before), and there is a consensus among major sports betting sites that says Houston is the largest longshot at winning its division.
But CEO and chairman Cal McNair expects the Texans will “be in position to win even this year,” and, by firing former coach David Culley after just one season, Caserio signaled a focus on fielding more competitive football and his tenure with newly promoted coach Lovie Smith will be more defined by results.
We fielded some pressing questions about the Texans entering the summer and answered them below.
How long a leash does Davis Mills have this season? Would the Texans move for another veteran option or just ride it out if he struggles?
Expect the Texans to stick with Mills the entire season. By signing journeyman Kyle Allen in the offseason, they do have a veteran option available who started in 17 games in four seasons with Carolina and Washington. But that signing was more about supporting the quarterback room with a serviceable backup than it was about challenging Mills with competition.
Every offseason decision the Texans made — especially the promotion of Pep Hamilton to offensive coordinator — signaled a prudent commitment to find out if Mills can be Houston's franchise quarterback. That's the team's most important question this season. The quarterback draft class next year includes Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, and Caserio needs to know if he'll have to spend a pick on another passer. That kind of discovery can take precedent over “moving on” to another option when the Texans aren't expected to compete for the playoffs this year.
If Mills struggles, he should have the opportunity to solve those issues. If problems persist, if he's turning the ball over a ton and the losses are mounting, then it'd be fair to think Caserio has his answer and might want to plug in another quarterback and try and spark the offense. The Texans need answers about their other position groups, too, and quarterback play can somewhat affect that evaluation.
Are there any concerns that John Metchie III won’t be ready for Week 1?
We spoke with Dr. Lyle
Cain, the Alabama team physician who conducted Metchie's knee surgery after he tore his anterior cruciate ligament on a non-contact cut in the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 4, and Cain said Metchie was “beating every timetable we normally have,” and, if he continues along that schedule in his recovery in Houston, “he has a good chance to be ready to play.”
Cain was optimistic about Metchie because there was little swelling, which gave Metchie the illusion he was prepared to play in Alabama's semifinal playoff game against Cincinnati. Even post-surgery, the knee looked “normal.”
And when we asked Metchie about his recovery after the Texans traded up to draft him in the second round, he said he'd be “full-go football” in July, that he'd been running, cutting and jumping in the months leading up to the draft and felt “better than I ever felt.”
All of that to say Metchie is very much on track to play for the Texans when they open the season at home against the Colts on Sept. 11. That will mark nine months and seven days since Metchie's injury, and Cain has seen Alabama athletes return anywhere between five to nine months based on how well their body responds to surgery.
Expect the Texans to be overly cautious with Metchie during training camp and the preseason. Caserio has said “when he's ready, he'll be ready” and that the Texans aren't going to “rush or push” their new receiver. Already, the franchise lost DaeSean Hamilton, who suffered a knee injury while running routes during OTAs. Sending Metchie into full-contact drills in training camp — even playing him in one of their three preseason games — seems like an unnecessary risk. Pep Hamilton knows Metchie's capabilities and is already using his Alabama film to factor him into the offense.
Metchie's initial return in training camp could resemble how Houston handled No. 3 overall pick Derek Stingley Jr., who underwent season-ending Lisfranc surgery last season. Stingley participated in individual drills and scripted defensive plays during OTAs, but remained on the sideline during 11-vs.-11 sessions.
How effective do you think the pass rush will be? I just don’t know how much confidence I have in the defensive line.
At the very least, the Texans should show moderate improvement because they now have players who fit Smith's four-man front scheme. Last year's leading edge rushers all had previously been 3-4 outside linebackers: Jonathan Greenard, Jacob Martin, Whitney Mercilus, Jordan Jenkins. Smith covets an aggressive style like Buffalo's, and after poaching former Bills assistant Jacques Cesaire as his new defensive line coach, the Texans signed former Buffalo edge rushers Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison.
Hughes, 33, and Addison,
34, will have to prove they're still productive entering their mid-30s, and it's difficult to judge just how good they'll be based off OTAs and mandatory minicamp. That being said, facing two-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil is a pretty good indicator, and Hughes got the better of Tunsil in an impressive 11-vs.-11 rep on Wednesday, which shows Hughes can still make use of the bag of pass rush moves he's packed in 12 NFL seasons.
Their mentorship could benefit Greenard, Houston's 2020 third-round pick, who must sustain success after recording seven sacks in his first six starts last season, only to finish with one sack in his final six. Greenard also battled a foot injury, and he's been sidelined since undergoing offseason surgery. Include free agent signees Obo Okoronkwo (Rams), 27, and Rasheem Green (Seahawks), 25, who've shown promise when healthy.
Anticipate minor improvement from the line after the Texans' defense fielded the 11th-lowest sack rate in the NFL last season (5.86 percent of total pass attempts) and pressured quarterbacks at the league's fifth-lowest rate (20.7 percent). While Maliek Collins could provide interior pressure in his second year as Houston's 3-technique tackle, there isn't yet any certainty this can be a unit that imposes league-wide fear.
Who, if anyone, could you see being a candidate to receive a contract extension during or shortly after the season?
This is an interesting and timely question, since Caserio shared more about his roster management process in a Thursday morning radio interview. Caserio said he tries to evaluate the roster in twoyear windows when it comes to fitting players within the team's salary cap. If you look too far ahead, Caserio said, there are just too many moving parts and “you start to talk yourself into circles if you're not careful.”
Caserio has committed to that two-year window. Since Caserio was hired in January 2021, the only non-rookie he's signed to a contract larger than two years is punter Cam Johnston, whose three-year, $8 million deal expires after the 2023 season.
Brandin Cooks signed a two-year extension. Tunsil and safety Eric Murray both restructured their contracts under new two-year terms. Collins, center Justin Britt, cornerback Desmond King and linebacker Christian Kirksey all re-signed under new two-year deals. Hughes, Addison, right guard A.J. Cann, cornerback Steven Nelson, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin and running back Dare Ogunbowale all signed twoyear contracts in free agency. Even Caserio's trade for linebacker Blake Cashman falls within that window, because his contract expires within two seasons.
Everyone else is either still playing on their rookie deal or signed a one-year contract. And, as we transition toward answering your question, a few important rules to note
from the league’s collective bargaining agreement:
1. Teams can’t enter negotiations with a veteran within 12 months of the player’s last contract negotiation. If it’s the first time the player is entering a contract negotiation, it can take place at any time.
2. Teams can’t enter negotiations with someone they drafted until after the final regular season game of their third contract year. For undrafted free agents, a team can’t enter negotiations until after their second contract year.
So, let’s say Greenard takes a significant step in 2022 and breaks the 10-sack threshold, which no Texans player has done since J.J. Watt in 2018. Even if Caserio wanted to enter negotiations to secure Greenard beyond the 2023 season — and he’s said he’s open to in-season negotiations — he’d by rule have to wait until after the Texans play the Colts on Jan. 8, 2023.
Tytus Howard, who just finished his third season, is now eligible for a contract renegotiation. Caserio could begin negotiations with Houston’s 2019 first-round pick at any time, although since he already exercised the fifth-year option that keeps Howard under contract through 2023,
it’s more than likely he’d want to see how Howard plays a full season at right tackle before making any further commitment.
Say Howard thrives this season. That would then create an interesting offseason situation in which Caserio would have to consider how to handle negotiations with both Howard and Tunsil, whose contracts both expire after 2023. Could the Texans afford to extend both? The franchise’s salary cap is on track to balloon to $45.8 million in 2023, then a league-leading $187.9 million in 2024, according to Over The Cap.
Tunsil, who signed a threeyear, $66 million contract in 2020, will be eligible for renegotiation in March 2023 (12 months after his recent restructure) and will likely require a higher price than Howard. But if they both show they can be a solid duo on the offensive perimeter, Caserio would have to weigh whether he’d want to choose one or both, and, if it’s just one, whether he’d want to re-sign Charlie Heck, who started in 13 games last year, as a replacement or pursue a premier tackle in one of the next two drafts.
Caserio executed two inseason contract negotiations last year. He signed cornerback/return specialist Tremon Smith and running back Rex Burkhead to one-year deals.
Both players fulfilled positions of need in which there weren’t many players returning. Both players resembled the culture Caserio wanted to build. Wide receivers Chris Conley and Phillip Dorsett could fit within that type of reasoning if either of them establishes a foothold in what will be a contract year for both of them.
But remember, this is a team that’s considered to have more talent off its roster than on it. They’ll have two first-round picks in each of the next two drafts, and Caserio will likely want to explore splurging on top-graded free agents once he has that kind of cash available. He could likely make affordable negotiations to retain one-year players like Okoronkwo, linebacker Kamu GrugierHill, safety Jonathan Owens or running back Marlon Mack if need be, and it’s also likely those contracts wouldn’t extend beyond two-year windows either.
After watching 11-on-11s during offseason workouts, who do you think starts at safety?
Jalen Pitre, Houston’s No. 37 overall pick out of Baylor, appears well on track to start at one of the safety spots. Smith has been praising the rookie during offseason workouts, and Pitre is the kind of dynamic defender whose versatility can allow Smith to get creative with his defensive game plans.
Owens is a sleeper to start next to Pitre. Smith said he saw a “potential star” last season in Owens, an undrafted free agent who’s battled his way onto the roster in each of the last three seasons. He started next to Justin Reid in Houston’s 41-29 upset of the Chargers and intercepted Justin Herbert.
Owens would have to beat out Eric Murray, who was sidelined during OTAs and minicamp after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. Murray was benched midseason in 2021, and the coaching staff said he improved in his final eight starts. M.J. Stewart, a physical safety who signed a one-year deal after impressing in supportive roles with the Browns, could make a push, too.
What’s the position group of strength for the Texans? What’s the position group with the potential to surprise?
The Texans are strongest at wide receiver. Cooks is a perennial 1,000-yard receiver. Nico Collins, who impressed as a rookie, showed up to offseason workouts looking much stronger within his 6-foot-4 frame. And once Metchie’s healthy, Mills should have a fairly dynamic set of passcatchers at his disposal.
Houston’s linebacker corps could be a surprise strength, a year after the unit struggled within a defense that surrendered the second-most rushing yards in the NFL. Caserio traded up to select Christian Harris in the third round, and the Alabama prospect’s speed (4.44-second 40-yard dash at the scouting combine) could give the Texans a matchup winner both against the run and pass that they didn’t have before.
“He’s able to make some plays that others (can’t) just because of his raw athletic ability,” linebacker coach Miles Smith said. “It’s our job to just teach him the defense and allow him to play fast.”
Garret Wallow, Houston’s fifth-round pick in 2021, might also push for a starting job at outside linebacker. Caserio told Sports Radio 610 “nobody’s made more progress physically and what they’ve done on the field in our program than Garret Wallow.”
Miles Smith noted how Wallow “transformed his body” and now, at 6-2, 230 pounds, “looks like an NFL linebacker.” The 23-year-old from TCU spent the majority of last season on special teams, then started in Houston’s consecutive wins against the Jaguars and Chargers. He combined for 15 tackles and a sack in those games.