San Antonio Express-News (Sunday)
Questionable penalty calls can become red flag for picks
Penalties drive NFL coaches and fans crazy.
Some infractions, like offside and the false start, are fairly clear-cut to spot and have some correlation to a team's skill and ability. They are generally the mark of a young roster — or one with inexperienced starters being asked to replace injured starters. The Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks and Miami Dolphins are the league's most penalized teams, while Seattle and Miami join the New York Jets, Washington Commanders and Baltimore Ravens as teams at deficits when it comes to net penalty yards against opponents, according to nflpenalties.com.
The more subjective flags — where referees are asked to exercise independent judgment in deciding penalties like pass interference, roughing the passer, and unsportsmanlike conduct — are the ones that send fan bases and bettors into chaos.
Take Atlanta's win over Carolina last week, for example. P.J. Walker's 62-yard touchdown pass to D.J. Moore with 12 seconds left in the fourth quarter tied the game at 34. The Panthers needed only to convert the extrapoint attempt. But game officials decided that Moore's removal of his helmet after the play amounted to unsportsmanlike conduct and tacked 15 yards onto the kick, which Eddy Piñeiro missed. The Falcons won, 37-34, on an overtime field goal.
All to say that, like Piñeiro, we had a down Week 8, and we're looking to exercise our right as American football fans to blame the refs. It's the halfway point, and our record sits at exactly .500.
Last week’s record: 7-8.
Overall: 61-61-1.
SUNDAY’S BEST GAMES CHARGERS (4-3) AT FALCONS (4-4)
The Falcons sit atop the NFC South with a .500 record, having outperformed preseason expectations, but their win over the Panthers last week was Atlanta's first game as the favorite, and its first failure to cover the spread. This week, the Falcons are market underdogs again, getting a field goal at home against the Chargers, a team that's likely to put Justin Herbert's arm to use against a struggling secondary.
But the Chargers' defense, which allows opponents an average of 5.7 yards per rush, will need to contend with the Falcons' punishing ground attack, which should have more than enough juice to dominate. Pick: Falcons +3½.
DOLPHINS (5-3) AT BEARS (3-5)
Tua Tagovailoa continues to put up big numbers throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Before Tuesday's trade deadline, Miami added Pro Bowl linebacker Bradley Chubb to a pass defense that ranks 29th in the league and has given up at least 300 passing yards in four games.
The help will come in handy, but it may not be enough against Chicago, which is playing its best football of the season and added receiver Chase
Claypool in a trade with Pittsburgh. His new quarterback, Justin Fields, is not yet known for his arm, but he went 17-of-23 with two touchdowns and earned a career-best passer rating in a loss to Dallas last week. Pick: Bears +5.
BILLS (6-1) AT JETS (5-3)
The air leaked out of the Jets' sails last week, when the New England Patriots snapped the team's four-game winning streak and Zach Wilson threw three interceptions, dropping his quarterback rating to the second-worst in the league. James Robinson, acquired from Jacksonville to replace injured running back Breece Hall, carried the ball for only 17 total yards. The market didn't like what it saw, and is giving the Jets two touchdowns against a Bills team that looks Super Bowl-bound.
The Bills had no problem covering the 14-point spread against the Steelers in Week 5 at home, but last week against the Packers, they failed to cover the 10.5-point spread by a half point. Double-digit spreads are risky business in the
NFL, especially with the favorite on the road.
Pick: Jets +13.
VIKINGS (6-1) AT COMMANDERS (4-4)
The Vikings are first in the NFC North at 6-1, but they have won each of their past five games by one possession. Last season, Minnesota went 6-8 in close games, so its record signals that the team has figured out how to claw victory from the jaws of defeat. The Vikings may be able to create more cushion after trading for former Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson this week.
They'll take on the best of the last-place teams, with Taylor Heinicke playing reasonably well in place of Carson Wentz, who is sidelined with a finger injury. Pick: Commanders +3½.
SEAHAWKS (5-3) AT CARDINALS (3-5)
These division rivals met in Week 6, when Seattle won, 19-9, as 3point underdogs at home. This time, they'll be playing in Arizona, and the line still opened with the Cardinals at -3. The market must not have liked that because early money moved the line to 2 and money continues to come in on Seattle, which has won its past three games. Geno Smith is No. 1 in completion percentage in the NFL, despite being one of the most pressured quarterbacks. The odds of him winning the Most Valuable Player Award have gone from 300-1 at the start of the season to 28-1. Smith is valuable, and so are these two points. Pick: Seahawks +2.
RAMS (3-4) AT BUCCANEERS (3-5)
These recent Super Bowl contenders have struggled this season, and the market seems to be reacting to their slides. Tampa Bay has been favored in each of its games this season, but it is only 2-6 against the spread. The oddsmakers haven't yet given up on the Buccaneers, who were a 1-point favorite against the Rams before losing to Baltimore last week: The line had Tampa Bay -3 as of Wednesday.
That may reflect bookmakers' lack of confidence in the Rams' trajectory more than the Buccaneers' capabilities. Los Angeles benched running back Cam Akers for two games as the team explored, but did not find, trades. He is questionable to return this week, as is backup running back
Kyren Williams, who has been sidelined by a high ankle sprain. With the run game in flux, the Rams would love to count on receiver Cooper Kupp to play, but he was listed as questionable (ankle). Pick: Buccaneers -3.
TITANS (5-2) AT CHIEFS (5-2)
Derrick Henry has averaged 130 yards per game during the Titans' five-game win streak, and he made things easy for rookie quarterback Malik Willis as he started his first game in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill last week: Of the Titans' 26 plays in the second half, Willis passed the ball only once.
Tannehill was limited in practices and was questionable for Sunday. If he is unable to play, Tennessee will need a new game plan to beat a well-rested Kansas City team. Coach Andy Reid is 20-3 over his career in games following open weeks. Pick: Titans +12½.