San Antonio Express-News (Sunday)
UH poll finds Abbott’s endorsement holds more sway in primary
Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton have waded into dozens of House Republican primaries this year, often lining up behind competing candidates as they look to settle political scores.
But according to a new statewide poll, one of them has a better chance of influencing GOP voters.
The survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found that about two-thirds of likely Republican primary voters would be more persuaded to vote for a Texas House candidate if they were endorsed by Abbott, while just 40% said the same of Paxton.
The governor’s top campaign priority — unseating GOP lawmakers who oppose school vouchers — also carries more weight than Paxton’s effort to oust members who helped impeach him last May, the survey found.
The polling provides one of the first detailed looks at how voters’ stances on vouchers and impeachment — the two issues drawing the most money and attention in this year’s GOP primaries — are playing out across Texas’ dozens of contested state House races. Without much competition atop the ballot, drama has centered on the GOP factions battling for control of the lower chamber, which has long been a foil to the more hard-line Senate.
According to the poll, conducted last month, 3 in 5 likely primary voters said they would be less inclined to back a House member who opposed vouchers last year, while just 16% said it would push them to support the candidate more.
A smaller share, 46%, said they were less likely to vote for a House member who supported Paxton’s impeachment. Although that’s double the 23% who said they were more likely to vote for a pro-impeachment member, it’s a far smaller split than on vouchers.
The results show that while Paxton’s impeachment still evokes bitter feelings among Republicans, many see it as “over,” said Renée Cross, senior executive director at the Hobby School and co-author of the poll. “But the school voucher situation is alive and well.”
Overall, 60% of voters said Paxton’s endorsement would have no effect on their vote (41%) or make them less likely to vote for a House candidate (19%), outnumbering the remaining 2 in 5 voters who said Paxton’s endorsement might sway them toward a candidate.
But the attorney general’s endorsement carried more weight among men, older voters and those who identify as “very conservative.”
Abbott and Paxton have endorsed opposing House candidates in two dozen races.
The governor is lining up behind a mix of pro-voucher incumbents and challengers running against members who helped strip vouchers from an education funding bill in November.
It is Abbott’s first major foray into the House primaries since 2018, when he targeted three GOP lawmakers and unseated only one of them. Cross, noting that the poll found only former President Donald Trump’s endorsement carried more weight than Abbott’s, said “we may see a different story” this time.
Abbott also comes into the races with other advantages. His $38 million war chest dwarfs Paxton’s, and he’s backing mostly incumbents, who typically have more name recognition and other built-in advantages.
Still, voters said they were even more likely to be swayed by members’ stances on immigration and transgender issues. At least 85% said they would be more likely to back a House member who supported recent GOP bills making “illegal entry” a state crime and banning transgender sports athletes from playing on teams that match their identity.
Abbott has focused heavily on both issues while campaigning with House candidates, framing vouchers as a way for conservatives to move their kids away from public schools that he has called breeding grounds for liberal ideas.
“Any of those social issues are going to appeal to the emotions of these, particularly, very conservative and conservative voters,” Cross said of those most likely to turn out for the March 5 GOP primary. “And if one of the governor’s priorities is to beat these incumbents in these House races, that’s a good tactic.”
The poll found virtually no difference in the attitudes of voters in rural areas on the issue of school vouchers, a notable finding given that most GOP lawmakers who voted down vouchers last year voiced fears that the policy would drain public school funding in their sparsely populated districts. Many of them have few if any private school options nearby.
“We really didn’t see a big split of opinion between urban and rural folks,” Cross said. “You know, we constantly think of this as urban Democrats and rural Republicans banding together against other Republicans. At least according to this survey, we’re not necessarily seeing that split.”
The poll was conducted from Jan. 11 to Jan. 24 and has a +/- 4.4% margin of error.