Southwest building back flight schedule
Betting on a continuing uptick in airline passengers, Southwest Airlines is increasing flights systemwide — including restarting direct flights from San Antonio International Airport to Orlando and Nashville, and increasing the number of daily flights to Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas and Houston.
The increase in flights from San Antonio — from 13 a day in May to 22 a day on average in June and July — is still less than half the number of Southwest flights in February, before the coronavirus pandemic grounded much of the air transport system.
Southwest has the largest presence at the San Antonio airport.
It's part of carrier's strategy to rebuild its schedule to PRECOVID-19 levels by the end of the year. Other airlines also are resuming service at San Antonio International and expanding the frequency of existing flights.
Aeromexico will resume service to Mexico City on June 18, and Vivaaerobus will start service to Monterrey, Mexico, on
July 3.
So far, Southwest has the aggressive expansion plan, ramping up to offer 53 flights a day from San Antonio this coming December, higher than the 45 flights a day it ran in December 2019, said Adam Decaire, the airline's vice-president of network planning. In total, the airline plans to run more than 4,000 flights across its route network in December, from its current 1,400 flights.
Despite its plan, Southwest CEO Gary Kelly acknowledged in a Youtube video for employees late last month that the airline is in “intensive care.”
How Southwest will fare in a year, he said, will depend in part on whether the coronavirus pandemic is still in existence.
“We'll compete hard for customers, understanding it will be a brutal, low-fare environment as there are far more airline seats — and there will be for some time — than there are customers,” he said.
Southwest announced a major fare sale last month, with fares as low as $48 each way. The fare sale continues through June 12.
Airline analysts say it could take several years for passenger travel to return to normal because of COVID-19 fears and uncertainty about the economic recovery.
Decaire said Southwest is counting on passenger demand continuing to increase in coming months as stay-at-home orders are lifted, freeing people to travel once again.
“So while I think it's true that there's some expectation that we don't necessarily get back to full recovery, maybe the experts say anywhere from two months
to years,” he said. “We also know that there's going to be a lot of customers who still want to get to the places that they want to go.”
In April, Southwest's passenger traffic was down to 5 percent of what it was in April 2019. But the airline said its forecast anticipated that number would increase to 25 percent to 30 percent in May.
The airline has not released its final May numbers.
Southwest won't say what percentage of it seats it anticipates will be filled in coming months, but at least until July 31, flights will be at least 33 percent empty.
Some Wall Street analysts are skeptical.
CFRA analyst Colin Scarola said Southwest may intend to restore its pre-pandemic capacity by year's end, but that investors should not assume more flights and seats means profitability.
“Even though Southwest may be flying the same number of seats at the end of 2020, there's a serious risk that its number of passengers, or load factors, will remain well below 2019 levels,” he said. “We point out a Harris poll conducted in May that indicated 48 percent of Americans would rather not fly until the pandemic ends.”
While Southwest anticipates
resuming its normal schedule in the closing months of 2020, nothing is final, said Brain Sumers, senior aviation business editor at travel industry website Skift.com.
“If the recovery Southwest hopes will happen does not occur, you can expect the airline to slash its schedule,” he said. “But even if it does, Southwest will probably keep the strategy where it flies more than its competitors.”
One major plus for Southwest is its financial condition — the best in the airline industry, analysts and consultants say. The airline has cash reserves of about $15 billion.
Other airlines are resuming some flights at San Antonio International, though not at the rate of Southwest.
The second biggest airline at the airport, American Airlines, is slightly expanding its flight schedule starting next month, going from five to seven flights a month, said an airline spokesperson.
Delta Air Lines will add one flight a day to Atlanta starting on July 6, for three daily flights a day to the city, said San Antonio Aviation Department spokeswoman Tonya Hope.
United Airlines, she said, will resume daily nonstop service to Denver and Washington Dulles airport on July 6, and service to Newark, New Jersey, on July 7.