Prescott betting on bigger payday
DALLAS — Dak Prescott is officially following in the footsteps of Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins to become only the third quarterback to play under a team’s franchise tag. The reason to find that instructive is because of what came next in the previous cases:
Both soon found other places to work.
Now, just because Dak and Jerry Jones didn’t come to an agreement on a long-term deal before Wednesday’s deadline doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t after this season or next. Chances are Dak will remain the Cowboys’ starting quarterback long past the expiration date on your patience.
Here’s betting Dak will change your mind one of these days. He’s changed Jerry’s, or should have, anyway.
The Joneses should no longer assume that the former fourthround pick is simply glad to be a Cowboy. No question, he enjoys the perks of quarterbacking “America’s Team.” But if we’ve learned nothing else from this
interminable stalemate, it’s that you can doubt Dak’s potential all you want, but don’t underestimate his ability to play hardball. Jerry will take him for granted at his peril. Remember when Jerry caved last year and made Zeke Elliott the league’s highest-paid running back? Had to do it, right? Zeke threatened to hold out, and the offense was built around him. Or at least that was the storyline at the time. Funny, then, that in the first year of Zeke’s new deal, his numbers were down across the board. Especially his ability to take it to the house. Meanwhile, Dak’s numbers went up. Under the guidance of Mike Mccarthy, and with the maturation of Michael Gallup and addition of a true playmaker in Ceedee Lamb, you should expect the 21st century trend to continue.
What that means is that Zeke will probably touch the ball even less. Meanwhile, Dak’s role grows along with his bank account.
Most organizations seem to intuitively understand that quarterbacks are not only more important than running backs — good ones are so much harder to find. Ask Cleveland. It’s why they’re so much more expensive than running backs. Jerry certainly didn’t have any problem paying Tony Romo. For that matter, he’s often paid top dollar by position. As he’s reminded us more than once, if he wants to keep a guy, he does.
But as Wednesday’s missed deadline proved, Dak has confounded Jerry. Once the owner didn’t get a deal done after Dak’s third season, we probably should have seen this coming. Carson Wentz and Jared Goff signed big extensions after their third seasons. But they also made significantly more money off their rookie contracts. Wentz, the second pick of the 2016 draft, earned a $17.6 million signing bonus, about four times what Dak has made the last four years combined. He’s making up for lost time and money by following Cousins’ lead.
During the past four years, no one in the NFL has earned more money than Cousins, who signed two tags with Washington and then a couple of lucrative contracts with the Vikings. You can argue that a quarterback who plays under the tag is taking a big gamble. What if he gets hurt? What if he plays poorly? What if he doesn’t win? All true. But it’s worked out far better for Cousins than it has for Washington since.
The Chargers tagged Brees in 2005 because they had Philip Rivers on hold. After Brees injured his shoulder that season, the Chargers let him sign a six-year deal with New Orleans, where Sean Payton’s tutelage and offense turned him into a Hall of Famer.
Now we can argue whether the Chargers would have won any more often with Rivers instead of Brees. But it worked out just fine for the latter.
Dak isn’t as good as Brees, obviously, but he’s at least as good as Cousins and getting better.
More to the point, who would replace Dak if he were to leave? There’s no Rivers on the Cowboys’ bench. They could end up like Washington, spending big on top picks or free agents who may or may not work out any better.
So if Jerry always gets deals done if he wants to, why couldn’t he do it with Dak? Because Jerry’s stubborn and Dak sees the fat cash cow on the horizon. The league’s current TV contracts expire after the 2022 season, at which point added playoff games and a 17th regular-season game will drive revenues through the roof. Combine those gains with increased returns on the league’s forays into legalized gambling, and experts say the salary cap could be as much as 20 percent higher.
And what seemed like wild quarterback money in 2020 will seem almost quaint in comparison.
If Dak flops, well, then he lost his bet. But I don’t think he will. And if he wins, the leverage is all his after this season. Why would he sign a long-term deal before 2021? He’d make $37.7 million on the tag next year, more than he’d probably make in the first season of a multiyear deal.
And if he plays well under the tag for two years, Jerry would be forced to pay him $54 million for a third tag.
One way or another, Dak will finally get paid. Nothing personal; just business. Of all people, Jerry should appreciate that.