Tropical system heads for Yucatán
After arecordnumberofnamed storms in September in the Atlantic, the tropics are picking up right where they left off in October as two systems show the potential to organize. The first of the two systems, declared a tropical depression Friday, has prompted tropical storm warnings for parts of the Yucatán Peninsula. A second system may develop right on its heels as it traverses the Caribbean.
The newly formed depression is predicted to intensify into a tropical stormby Saturday, earning the name Gamma. It would become the earliest 24th named storm on record in the Atlantic, forming more than three weeks ahead of the previous recordholder named on Oct. 27, 2005. Forecasters have run out of conventional storm names in 2020 and are drawing from the Greek alphabet for only the second time.
The National Hurricane Center declared Tropical Depression 25 was centered about 220 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico; had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph; and was heading northwest at 9 mph.
Heavy rainfall is the depression’s most immediate concern. TheHurricaneCenterprojects 4 to 8 inches for parts of the Yucatán Peninsula and western Cuba, with isolated 12 inch totals, which may cause flash floods and mudslides.
“A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas, with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches,” the Hurricane Center wrote.
OnSundayandMonday, the system is predicted to emerge over the southern and southwest Gulf of Mexico, according to the Hurricane Center. Its official forecast calls for it to drift through the southwest Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week. Beyond that, it’s unclear whether what remains of the system will drift westward over Mexico or potentially turn more to the northwest.
Onthe heels of Tropical Depression 25, the Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance in the eastern Caribbean. The large mass of thunderstorms is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph.
The Hurricane Center gave it a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or stormin the next five days.
Computer models indicate this system, which would be Tropical Storm Delta if it develops, may enter the southern Gulf of Mexico in about a week. But where it tracks after that is highly uncertain.