Time for Dallas to see what it has in Pollard
Even in raising the name of a man called Julius, I do not come to bury Ezekiel Elliott. Not sure praise is the right word, either.
While Sunday could spell the end of the Cowboys’ playoff “hopes” in the form of a Dallas loss to San Francisco or Washington knocking off Seattle, there is another fight to be waged to the finish in 2020. It is the battle at running back, and I will be surprised if it is not ultimately won — in terms of snaps, anyway — by Tony Pollard.
Elliott has been bothered by a calf injury the past two weeks, and head coach Mike McCarthy said Friday that Elliott had been slower in preparation than he was a week ago.
“But I still plan on playing him Sunday,” McCarthy said.
The question is how much and not solely because of injury.
Whatever Elliott’s ailment, he had a 26-yard run against the Bengals last week. It was his only really efficient play on a day where he ran for 48 yards, but it was his longest run since the 2019 season.
As one might expect with a patchwork offensive line, Elliott is averaging the fewest yards per carry (3.9) of his career this season, down more than half a yard from a year ago (4.5).
You can say the same about his backup, Pollard, although his numbers (5.3 in 2019, 4.5 this season) are exemplary by comparison. And when you watch them play, there’s no question Pollard is the quicker of the two, with more of a burst when he finds the rare hole. So why wouldn’t one wish to see him play more down the stretch as the season heads toward a closing time that everyone welcomes?
It all reminds me of the 2007 season when Julius Jones started all 16 games but was clearly a back in decline. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry while Marion Barber averaged 4.8 coming off
the bench to run for nearly 1,000 yards. Barber finally got his first start in the playoffs, running for 129 yards in a loss to New York.
Pollard runs nothing like the battering ram that was Barber and, again, I’m not suggesting Elliott has hit the wall Jones had slammed into by 2007. But you do watch these games and wonder what Pollard might do with more opportunities.
There was a time last season when Pollard’s pass protection was so limited that you wouldn’t dare put Dak Prescott in harm’s way too often. But Pollard has made great strides, so pass protection’s really not part of the ongoing discussion.
The snaps already are closer than you might think. Over the past three games, Elliott has
averaged 40.3 snaps to Pollard’s 37.3. Injuries aside, I suspect Pollard takes the upper hand if for no reason than to learn more about what the team has in its backup.
This isn’t about Pollard wresting Elliott’s job away on a permanent basis. The contract the Cowboys caved in on and handed Zeke a year ago to end his holdout all but guarantees he’s in a Dallas uniform for two more seasons.
This isn’t the NBA, where bloated contracts get tossed around from team to team. Elliott’s cap hit next season is $13.7 million, with $16.5 million to follow in 2022, and there’s nothing that leads one to believe it’s movable money — not when Elliott’s yards per carry are a shade under 4, he leads all run
ning backs in fumbles lost, and he’s tied for fourth in the league in dropped passes.
It’s important to note that while the Cowboys wrestle with this decision, the 49ers have no such cap worries (at least not at this position). They don’t have a single back with 500 yards rushing, yet just three weeks ago they beat the Rams by controlling the clock for 34 minutes.
A year ago they went to the Super Bowl without an 800-yard rusher in their backfield. Head coach Kyle Shanahan shares the wealth and rides the hot hand, while management doesn’t fall in love (none of their backs have a cap hit of $5 million) with any of them.
It’s entirely possible the return of Tyron Smith, La’el Collins, Zack Martin and Prescott
will produce a surge in Elliott’s numbers in 2021. One would anticipate they have to go in an upward direction, at least to some degree.
But an entire season (to this point) with just one 100-yard rushing day on top of his already mentioned issues is alarming.
The long runs are gone. Elliott remains a tough inside runner, willing to take hits and bounce forward for those extra yards. But I’m not sure he ever brought his Ohio State speed to Dallas, and certainly it vanished after his rookie season.
Put the money aside, since there’s no real decision to make, and see what you have — that should be McCarthy’s only interest in these final few weeks. Then let management decide what to do about it.