Curtain rises on a new era
Will smart moves be followed by a lucky break?
The Spurs made the right call with Derrick White, and not just this week. It started with choosing him in the first place.
Three and a half years ago, when their turn came up in the 2017 NBA Draft, it would’ve been impossible for them to make a better selection than their surprise pick out of Colorado. This is not just an opinion. Numbers might lie every now and then, but they sure make a habit of agreeing with the Spurs’ scouting department.
The Basketball Reference database keeps track of a statistic called Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), which in essence is a comprehensive measure of production. VORP says the Spurs got the seventhbest player in the 2017 draft with the 29th pick, and that nobody taken after White has been worth as much as he has.
In other words the Spurs nailed it, and it wasn’t an aberration. Few teams have drafted better than they have over the past half-decade, and few teams have left themselves with more roster flexibility moving forward.
But as they head into a season in which championship contention looks as distant as ever, they’re also learning a cold NBA truth:
Being smart doesn’t mean much without being a little lucky.
Nobody, as Gregg Popovich has noted often, is going to feel sorry for them. They can lose every game from now until the AT&T Center is oceanfront property and still not have repaid the karmic debt of winning the franchise-saving David Robinson and Tim Duncan lotteries.
But even though they might not be due for another big break, it’s understandable why they might feel they need one.
The Spurs’ new core is filled with solid, promising young players, and each of them represents a well-researched bas
ketball decision. As the front office has transitioned from CEO R.C. Buford to general manager Brian Wright, the organization keeps piling up intriguing athletes and sensible contracts, and the hope is that someday San Antonio will have too many of them to lose.
But the problem is that no assemblage of midround steals and free agency values is likely to be enough to vie for another championship, unless one of those sleeper picks mutates into a superstar – think Kawhi Leonard – or unless the Spurs are able to use some of their upcoming salary cap space to sign one.
It’s an awkward spot, because the Spurs have to be simultaneously encouraged by their track record of individual choices and sobered by how long their title odds still look.
White, who signed a four-year contract extension on Monday, hasn’t been their only success. The year before he was drafted, in 2016, the Spurs took Dejounte Murray with the 29th pick. According to VORP, he was the 10th best player in the draft. And although two players taken in the second round — Malcolm Brogdon and Ivica Zubac — have been more productive, it’s difficult to quibble with the Spurs’ choice.
The same can be said of Lonnie Walker, who the Spurs took with the 18th pick in the 2018 draft. He hasn’t been as good as Murray or White, and VORP doesn’t like him as much as multiple players selected after him, but it’s
not insane to think the Spurs still might see more potential in Walker than, say, Kevin Huerter or Landry Shamet.
Last year, the Spurs picked Luka Samanic over Brandon Clarke, and that hasn’t looked great so far. But they also got Keldon Johnson with the 29th pick, and he already looks like he should have gone in the lottery. If 2020 selection Devin Vassell’s preseason was any harbinger of things to come, it’s not a stretch to think the Spurs will end up with a Top 10 player from at least
four of the last five drafts, despite never picking higher than 11th.
And they’re still not a shoo-in playoff team.
This is why they still will need some good fortune to kick in, because stars win in the NBA, and it won’t matter how smart San Antonio has been if it can’t find another one.
Just look at how many times the Spurs have been right lately. They were right to let Jakob Poeltl hit restricted free agency, because they still wound up with a bargain. They were right to pick Murray
and White, and right to lock them up for the foreseeable future. They were right to take Johnson, and there’s a decent bet they were right to take Walker and Vassell, too.
They’ve been saddled with a few bad contracts this decade, and they got stuck in a no-win situation with Leonard. But now they have a new core, and a chance.
All they need is a dozen or so more smart moves.
Or one lucky one.