Fossil fuels are falling off the grid
Fossil fuel-supporting Chicken Littles have done their best to spread fear of renewable energy, warning that relying on wind, solar and storage would lead to blackouts and economic devastation.
For years, I have denounced the propaganda promulgated by lobbyists financed by the oil and gas industry.
Now, the latest data proves the new year will mark the end of the beginning for clean energy, and the beginning of the end of our reliance on coal and natural gas for electricity.
The tipping point was revealed in the latest capacity report from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, the grid operator that delivers power to most of the state.
After several years of thinning reserve generation capacity due to coal-fired plant retirements, solar facilities are adding cushion.
ERCOT runs one of the world’s leading competitive wholesale markets for electricity. Rather than dictate what kind of power plant an energy provider should build, generators compete to sell the lowestcost electricity.
In Texas, demand sets the price, not a political appointee.
Utilities have been shutting down old, expensive coal-fired and natural gas-fueled power plants, while others have constructed wind and solar facilities subsidized with tax credits.
Texas’ electricity reserve margins dropped below target levels in 2018 and 2019, stirring a lot of debate about reliability and higher prices.
“These business cycles of retirements and new invest
ments are expected in the ERCOT market, and it is ERCOT’s job to maintain reliable electric service through the various changing conditions,” ERCOT CEO Bill Magness said in a statement.
Most of the new investments are paying off.
ERCOT expects to add 3,039 megawatts of utilityscale solar resources, 1,765 megawatts of wind and 816 megawatts of natural gasfired generation next year.
The grid will have 86,842 megawatts of capacity to serve an expected peak demand of 77,244 megawatts in 2021, the council said.
In addition, ERCOT is working on adding large batteries that will provide even more capacity during the hour or so every August when demand peaks.
The reserve capacity in 2021 will be 15.5 percent, well above the target of 13 percent, and will rise to 27 percent in 2022, ERCOT said.
Solar and wind power’s predominance in new
generation is typical across the country, where major corporations and consumers want more of their electricity from sources that don’t contribute to climate change.
No new coal-powered plants are planned for the United States. New nuclear power technologies are a decade away from deployment. New natural gas plants struggle to compete on price with solar and wind, even after renewables lose the federal tax subsidies that are phasing out over the next few years.
President-elect Joe Biden also wants to make the U.S. power grid carbon neutral by 2035 to fight climate change.
While there are still plenty of fossil fuel Chicken Littles declaring that goal impossible, innovators are describing plenty of pathways to achieving net-zero greenhouse emissions.
“For an industry that has focused heavily on solar and wind, supportive federal actions could help progress timelines for further expansion into new technologies, in
cluding advanced batteries and other forms of storage, offshore wind, and green hydrogen technology,” the consulting firm Deloitte explains in its new Renewable Energy Outlook.
Batteries and green hydrogen, both of which I’ve written about recently, offer novel and affordable ways to store energy when proverbially, the wind
doesn’t blow, and the sun doesn’t shine. Carbon capture technology can also offset carbon emissions for those times when natural gas is needed.
Federal investment in these new technologies will be critical to meet the 2035 net-zero goal for electricity generation and even more important to make the entire economy net-zero by 2050.
Both targets are essential to prevent warming to levels that imperil human life.
Making those investments also will generate economic returns.
Federal incentives could trigger $1 trillion in private capital investment and create 1 million new clean energy jobs, says a report from energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie and
the American Clean Power Association.
“Transforming the U.S. power grid is technically and commercially feasible, with appropriate policy support. This activity would unlock a tremendous economic development opportunity for infrastructure investment and associated jobs,” said Aaron Barr, principal consultant in Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Practice.
Every week another organization shares a new plan for reaching net-zero emissions by 2035, and every technological innovation and cost reduction makes fossil fuel generation less attractive. The transition is well underway.
Those who make their living off fossil fuels can keep claiming the sky is falling, but the trajectory is clear. The energy powering the future will not come out of the ground.