Dallas sits because of record-worst defense
One sign. That’s all anyone should be thinking about at The Star this offseason. Hang one sign, or maybe several versions of the same sign, and put them everywhere to be viewed on a daily basis: 473 POINTS.
After the 2002 season, the Mavericks hung a sign in their practice gym to remind them of all the dunks and layups allowed in a five-game series loss to Sacramento. That next spring they beat the Kings and reached the Western Conference Finals for the first time under Don Nelson.
I’m not suggesting the Cowboys are going anywhere fast. But a daily reminder of the most points allowed in the franchise’s 61-year history feels necessary. As much as Cowboys fans want to think that the return of Dak Prescott and the offensive line will restore order in Dallas, you see something else when you look at this weekend’s games.
For the first time, the NFL is inviting 14 teams to the playoffs. Not exactly an exclusive postseason party. Kind of embarrassing when you don’t make it when all it would have required was an 8-8 record, a mark that was viewed as a familiar record of failure under Jason Garrett.
Then again, this is a franchise that has lost all sense of its former recordsetting ways. The Cowboys still hold the league record with 20 consecutive winning seasons (18 playoff
trips in a smaller playoff field during those 20 years). Since 2000, the Cowboys have reached the playoffs one-third of the time (7 out of 21 seasons).
In other words, same as the Falcons or the Chargers this century.
Jones said this week that it’s important “to analyze what we didn’t do, how we managed to be some of the ones that aren’t playing.”
And that brings us back to the one giant neon sign: 473 POINTS.
The Cowboys actually climbed out of the cellar and up to 28th in points
allowed in the final weeks. But, needless to say, the playoff teams traveled a different route when it comes to defense. The teams that ranked 1-2-3-4-5 in points surrendered (Rams, Ravens, Steelers, Washington, Saints) are playing football this weekend.
Seven of the top 10 and 12 of the top 16 are in the playoff field. The only teams outside the top half in points allowed are Cleveland (21st) and Tennessee (24th).
The similar number to examine — and this has
been a key number ever since I did something called the Super Bowl Formula 30 years ago that looked at what it takes to win championships — is run defense. It may seem anachronistic in a pass-happy era, but it’s not. If your team is coughing up easy rushing yards, well, it probably stinks against the pass, too.
The Cowboys ranked 31st and gave up more yards rushing than any Dallas team except Dave Campo’s first season (2000). That won’t come close to getting it done if you want to play in January. Again the top
five made the playoffs (Bucs, Colts, Rams, Saints, Seahawks). Seven of the top 10 and 11 of the top 15 are in. The only clubs past the halfway mark are Buffalo (17th), Tennessee (19th) and Kansas City (21st).
But getting back to what the Cowboys are really good at when Prescott is involved, throwing the football all over the place is no great predictor of success. As you know, Prescott had three 400-yard passing games before being injured in Week 5, was far and away the league leader in yards passing, and the club was 2-3. When you look at the playoffs, of course, Kansas City and Tampa Bay are right at the top and in the Lombardi Trophy hunt.
But six of the top 10 passing teams did not make it. And six playoff teams are ranked anywhere from 19th (Saints) to 23-24-25 (Titans, Browns, Washington) all the way down to dead-last 32nd (Ravens).
The Cowboys’ late season push enabled them to jump up to minus-3 in takeaways after being the league’s worst halfway through the year. Only three somewhat fringe playoff teams (Bears, Rams, Washington) were in the minus category. The 11 playoff teams that won at least 11 games all were plus-4 or better in takeaways.
That means better defense and fewer Zeke fumbles next season.
So when Jones says the team is going to analyze what went wrong and take notice, it all starts with a defense that was too often overmatched, especially on the interior against the run. “We’ve got to pay additional defense this year, and any dollar that goes there doesn’t go to another player. That’s how simple it is,” Jones said on his radio show.
That might have been a warning shot to Dak’s agent although he had already mentioned how the quarterback had all the leverage. Maybe so. But this team has to enact changes that restore some semblance of competence to the defense if it wants avoid missing another 14-team party next winter.