Virus demands discipline, sacrifice
Vaccines generate hope that we soon will curtail the COVID-19 pandemic, but resolving our economic and health crises will require continued personal discipline and collective economic sacrifice.
Almost every day, I see a headline declaring some key indicator has turned positive. Unemployment is not as bad as feared, the economy did not shrink as much as anticipated, businesses are not in as bad a shape as analysts expected.
Pharmaceutical companies developed vaccines at record speed, better treatments mean fatality rates are dropping and the mutant viruses are manageable. Every day, scientists learn something new, taking us a step closer to normalcy.
Feeling hopeful is critical to surviving a crisis, especially in the depth of winter, when life inside and out can seem bleak. But read past the headlines, and the story is more nuanced. We’ve come a long way, but we still have quite the journey ahead of us.
Coronavirus mutations have reached U.S. shores and probably already are in Texas, spreading at twice the original bug’s speed. Early data suggests the British variant is more deadly. A lot more people are going to die.
Before the pandemic, I spent more time in restaurants and bars than the average person. My wife and I traveled the world, staying in boutique hotels. We’re willing to pay extra for a great retail experience. Creative people make the
world wonderful.
No one wants to support these businesses more than I, and yet I am not willing to risk my family’s long-term health for them. Nor do I want to infect a friend or stranger.
Within my COVID-19 bubble, we are fortunate enough that we can doubledown on precautions. We are reducing trips to the grocer, limiting whom we see in outdoor spaces and wearing masks religiously.
We took these steps in anticipation of the next COVID-19 wave in the months ahead as the mutations sweep across the country. When I contemplate at least six more months of living in relative isolation until I get a vaccine, I despair. But the SARS-COV-2 does not think or feel or care about my feelings.
Neither does the Kshaped economic recovery worry about fairness. Investors in the stock market sit pretty, confident the Federal Reserve will keep financial markets healthy, and Congress will inject more cash boosting asset prices. But folks on the bottom half of the wealth curve continue to suffer disproportionately.
Almost 20 percent of renters have fallen behind an average of $5,600, or about four months of rent, according to research by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, and Jim Parrott, a fellow at the Urban Institute.
After the worst year of job losses in three decades, Texas ended 2020 with 430,000 fewer jobs than it started, according to my colleague, Rebecca Carballo. In December, unemployment statewide was 7.2 percent, the Texas Workforce Commission reported.
Energy industry watchers have cheered the rising number of operating oil and gas rigs. The Baker Hughes North American Rig Count has jumped from 244 in August to 378, the Reuters news agency reported.
The typical rig count during the 2014 boom, though, was 1,200. Analysts expect the count to average 369 in 2021. Not exactly a boom.
The American Hotel & Lodging Association has similarly distressing expectations for 2021. In its annual forecast, the group expects to add 200,000 jobs this year after losing 4 million due to the pandemic.
“Half of U.S. hotel rooms are projected to remain empty in 2021,” the group said in a statement. “Business travel is not expected to return to 2019 levels until at least 2023 or 2024.”
Business travel is the tourism industry’s bread and butter. Without expense accounts subsidizing room rates and airfares, leisure tourists will likely face higher prices, which discourages the industry’s recovery.
As tiresome as it is to repeat, the virus is in control of the economy and us. But as we enter this final stage of the pandemic, we can seize control with a little discipline and finesse.
We can end the pandemic this year if everyone spent more time within their bubbles, consistently wore masks when outside them, and spent more money speeding up vaccinations and providing a safety net for the needy. Isolation stops the spread. If we stopped bickering, we might even find unity in defeating our common foe.
The trick is not to let our guards down too soon. The virus is as dangerous as ever, and the humanitarian need has never been greater. We cannot let up now, especially because we can see the finish line.
Even once the virus is contained, though, our community will bear its scars. Rebuilding our health and economy will take years and will also require empathy and dedication.