Expect the usual trading traffic
Raptors’ Lowry among biggest names in play on deadline day
The NBA trade deadline, typically a February enterprise, is uncharacteristically competing with March Madness for the basketball public’s attention this year.
The buildup to the deadline at 2 p.m. Thursday has been equally untraditional. Numerous front-office executives have said trade chatter was slower to percolate this season because they had fewer opportunities to meet face to face on the road while scouting college games — and especially with front offices devoting so much attention to the daily challenges of managing their rosters and adhering to COVID-19 health and safety protocols as teams play through the pandemic.
The league’s new playoff format, which gives 10 teams in each conference a shot at the playoffs rather than the long-standing norm of eight, has further muddled the marketplace, persuading more teams than usual to keep the status quo. In past years, with fewer teams in playoff contention, teams more naturally fell into place as buyers or sellers.
Yet you can safely expect the typical flurry of trades before the buzzer sounds, despite the complications, because deadline day in the modern NBA is known for sparking teams into action and delivering frantic activity. No one is predicting a blockbuster deal on the level of James Harden being traded to the Brooklyn Nets, but there will be action.
A breakdown of what to expect:
Headliner: Kyle Lowry
With Harden already with Brooklyn, and the Washington Wizards adamant they won’t consider offers for Bradley Beal until at least the offseason, there is a strong likelihood that no current All-stars will be dealt this week.
The jockeying between Philadelphia and Miami for Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry, six times an All-star but not this season, is nonetheless significant. Thursday also happens to be Lowry’s 35th birthday, and the signals were getting stronger that a trade to the 76ers or the Miami Heat could materialize.
The Sixers crave Lowry’s floor leadership and defensive savvy after losing out to the Nets in the Harden sweepstakes. The Heat want to team Lowry, who will be a free agent this summer, with his good friend Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in what would be a rugged threeman core of noted twoway players. The Raptors could still offer Lowry a new deal but have quietly pledged to help route him to a preferred destination if the sides agree his longterm future lies elsewhere — provided the trade returns meaningful help for Toronto.
Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia’s promising rookie guard, is a natural target for Toronto in talks to send Lowry, a Philadelphia native, home. The Sixers, though, made Maxey untouchable in their talks with the Houston Rockets for Harden in January, refusing to add him to a package that included defensive ace Ben Simmons, a three-time Allstar. If that stance holds, it could take some creative maneuvering for Daryl Morey, Philadelphia’s president of basketball operations, to get Lowry again. In a 2009 trade as general manager of the Rockets, Morey pried the guard from the Memphis Grizzlies in a deal he has pointed to as one of his better moves in Houston.
The Heat are trying to win the Lowry race while also keeping veteran guard Goran Dragic and promising second-year shooter Tyler Herro out of any deal.
The success of Miami’s pursuit of Lowry could thus hinge on Toronto’s interest in a young player such as sharpshooting Duncan Robinson or rookie Precious Achiuwa packaged with Kelly Olynyk’s $12.6 million expiring contract.
The Sixers have the edge when it comes to first-round draft picks to sweeten a trade offer.
This much is clear: Toronto won’t just trade Lowry anywhere. He is considered Raptors royalty in his ninth season with the franchise, and management treats him accordingly after Lowry’s pivotal contributions to Toronto’s 2018-19 championship run — and with fresh memories of the criticism for trading a devoted Demar Derozan to the Spurs for one season of Kawhi Leonard.
Marquee names
Houston badly wants to trade Victor Oladipo, a two-time All-star who will become a free agent at season’s end. But with Oladipo receiving middling reviews for his play this season, and his durability in question, the Rockets face challenges in generating an encouraging return. Orlando’s Aaron Gordon and New Orleans’ Lonzo Ball, by contrast, are generating considerable interest.
While the Magic have talked to several teams about Gordon — most notably the Boston Celtics — it remains unclear how willing the Pelicans are to trade Ball, even when it is widely believed Ball is poised to attract offers in restricted free agency this summer that exceed what the Pelicans are willing to spend to keep him. The Los Angeles Clippers, despite their lack of future first-round picks to offer, have been exploring potential multi-team trade scenarios to get Ball.
The Celtics and the Clippers rank as the two most desperate teams at the deadline, given the playoff expectations they carried into the season and both clubs’ recent struggles. No less an authority than Danny Ainge, Boston’s president of basketball operations, said in a February radio interview that “we don’t have a good enough team,” essentially putting public pressure on himself to do something about it.
Boston has duly pursued a variety of big men whose teams are resistant to deals: Sacramento’s Harrison Barnes, Atlanta’s John Collins and Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic. The Celtics now appear focused on Gordon, or perhaps moreaffordable options such as Sacramento’s Nemanja Bjelica or Toronto’s Norman Powell.
Sacramento’s Bjelica, Oklahoma City’s George Hill, Detroit’s Wayne Ellington, Miami’s Olynyk, Indiana’s Aaron Holiday and the Orlando duo of Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross are all prime contenders to be moved. Hill and Minnesota’s Ricky Rubio have been mentioned frequently as secondary targets for the Clippers, after Ball.
Buyout market
Cleveland’s Andre Drummond and the Spurs’ Lamarcus Aldridge are two other former All-stars who have been heavily shopped, but their hefty salaries make it difficult for their teams to trade them. Neither the Cavaliers nor the Spurs want to take long-term salary back in a deal. If no trade materializes in either case, Drummond ($28.75 million) and Aldridge ($24 million) could become unrestricted free agents by negotiating buyouts.
There is a growing belief around the league that the Los Angeles Lakers have an edge over the Nets to sign Drummond if he makes it to free agency, and the Heat are widely regarded as the leaders to sign Aldridge.
The Lakers only can afford to offer Drummond a minimum deal, but they have a bigger role to offer him than the Nets. After he and the Cavaliers mutually agreed a month ago that he would not play while the team sought deals, Drummond needs playing time to enhance his marketability entering free agency. That has given the Lakers confidence they can trump the offers of the Nets, who can use a $5.7 million disabled player exception from Spencer Dinwiddie’s season-ending knee injury or a $5.6 million midlevel exception left over from last offseason.
Other players who could soon reach free agency through a buyout if they are not traded in the next two days include New Orleans’s JJ Redick, Cleveland’s Javale Mcgee, Memphis’ Gorgui Dieng, Sacramento’s Hassan Whiteside and the New York’s Austin Rivers.