Decision looming over glut of vaccine

WASHINGTON — Biden administration officials are expecting the supply of coronavirus vaccine to outstrip U.S. demand by mid-may if not sooner and are grappling with what to do with looming surpluses when vaccine scarcity turns to glut.

President Joe Biden has promised enough doses by the end of May to immunize all the nation’s roughly 260 million adults. But between then and the end of July, the government has locked in commitments from manufacturers for enough vaccine to cover 400 million people — about 70 million more than the nation’s entire population.

Whether to keep, modify or redirect those orders is a question with significant implications, not just for the nation’s efforts to contain the virus but also for how soon the pandemic can be brought to an end.

Vaccine manufacturers and some top federal officials say decisions about what to do with extra orders must be made within weeks, or the uncertainty could slow production lines.

Of the vaccine doses given globally, about three-quarters have gone to only 10 countries. At least 30 countries haven’t injected a single person.

And global scarcity threatens to grow more acute as nations and regions clamp down on vaccine exports. With infections soaring, India, which had been a major vaccine distributor, is holding back nearly all the 2.4 million doses manufactured daily by a private company there.

That action follows the European Union’s decision this week to move emergency legislation that would curb vaccine exports for the next six weeks.

Biden administration officials who are inclined to hold on to the coming U.S. surplus point to unmet need and rising uncertainty: Children and adolescents are still unvaccinated, and no one is certain if or when immunity could wear off, which could require millions of booster shots.

“We want to, largely, be a part of the global solution here,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said this week. But she added, “There are still a number of factors that are unpredictable that we need to plan for to the best of our ability.”