RANGERS FACE MANY QUESTIONS IN REBUILD
Expectations may not be high for 2021, but making progress key for organization, fans
SURPRISE, Ariz. — In the past year, scientists precisely and gently landed a rover, complete with its own drone, on a planet 292 million miles away. They developed, tested and rolled out multiple vaccines to curtail a world-changing pandemic.
They handle the tough questions every day.
So maybe they can get around to quantifying the unquantifiable like this: How to calculate success in a rebuilding season?
This is the Rangers’ plight — and one for their weary fans — as they enter the 2021 season. Wins and losses are not the primary metric of the season. Which is probably for the better anyway since the club is likely headed for a fifth consecutive losing season. For posterity’s sake, we should mention that would be the longest streak of losing seasons in the 50 since the team moved to Texas. Or maybe we shouldn’t. Fans have suffered enough.
Instead, the best way to measure the season is via “growth.”
Whatever that is. You want to know if the rebuilding effort of 2021 is successful? Probably best to check back in 2023. The truth about these projects is that baseball is still a zero-sum game. Eventually, you still have to win. Probably not this year. Maybe not next. But eventually. Ultimately, that’s the only measure that matters.
That’s not to say it can’t be a fascinating process for the woebegone fans, because building a successful organization can absolutely take on a life of its own. The course offers plenty to dream on. For those willing to do so.
In the meantime, though, all we can offer are theories about what matters to the ultimate plan.
To that end, here are some questions we think have to be answered by the end of 2021 to qualify the year as a significant step in the rebuild: 1. Who is playing third base?
If the answer to this is not Josh Jung, something went horribly wrong. The Rangers have cleared the way for him to get to Arlington on an express lane. They released Rougned Odor. And veteran bench guy Brock Holt is not a long-term solution. It is merely some spackle. The Rangers believe Jung is the future there. They believe he will be ready this year.
Had the minor league season gone off on time and had Jung not suffered a stress fracture in his foot, it was possible to envision his debut by the two-year anniversary of being selected eighth overall. That date: June 3. That’s out now. The minor league season doesn’t begin until the first week of May.
Jung won’t even return from surgery on the foot until the middle of the month at the earliest.
If he’s up by this year’s draft, which takes place at the All-star break, it will be a rocket trip through the minors.
2. Did Taveras stay in the majors all season?
The Rangers are pushing Leody Taveras. The 22-year-old only got a chance at the big leagues last year because of the weird pandemic roster set up. Offensively, he performed above expectations. But that still amounted to a .703 OPS. The goal is not for him to be an average offensive player. He still needs to do a better job of controlling the strike zone, which is why the idea of him leading off went nowhere this spring.
Taveras will struggle at times, but real progress means that it doesn’t get so bad it requires a demotion. As tempting as it is to push guys to the big leagues to show farm system production, the idea is not that they simply survive, but that they are ready to contribute.
3. How much did Dunning and Cody pitch?
The highest-ceiling pitching prospects remain buried in the minor league system, but the Rangers have to start producing legitimate big league starters. Dane Dunning, acquired from the Chicago White Sox, and Kyle Cody are seen more as middle-ofthe-rotation prospects, but you need those, too. You can’t simply build long-term success by paying retail for starting pitchers every year.
Both pitchers had Tommy John surgery in 2018. They have combined for 56 professional innings since. The starting rotation goal for this year: introduce them both to heavier workloads with success. If at least one works his way back to 100 innings this year, it puts him in position to be a reliable full-fledged starter in 2022 and start to peak by 2023.
4. Is Gallo still a Ranger?
If Joey Gallow is, it better be with a long-term contract extension. When Gallo hits, it’s often said there are only three possible outcomes. Same applies to his future. Either he performs like an All-star and is traded for a bounty of young talent, bombs and is untradeable or he performs big, the Rangers survey the landscape and decide that, hey, you know a guy with the ability to anchor a franchise who is in his late 20s just might be the kind of guy to keep around for at least the next six years as the team heads back into its window for success.
A trade, if value is there, is the safest route to go, but the trade market is changing, not for the better for the sellers. And a quick survey of the farm system doesn’t turn up a ton of middle-of-theorder hitting prospects.
5. Are the Rangers drafting No. 1 in 2022?
You would think this is a good thing for a rebuilding team, right? Not necessarily.
How to put this delicately: It is entirely possible the Rangers’ record will be terrible this year — but they best be careful of just how much.
Flirting with 100 losses may be marginally better for their 2022 draft position — though there are some bad teams scattered around the game that could challenge them — but it could do irreparable damage to the current blueprint for a return to contention.
That blueprint relies on the Rangers’ ability to accelerate the rebuild with significant free agent acquisitions over the winter. They will have money. But it doesn’t matter where Trevor Story is from (Irving), you aren’t going to simply money-whip a guy into signing without the hope of winning and soon. Well, unless they are Alex Rodriguez.
Will any of this guarantee the Rangers will contend in 2023? Will anything?
Nope. That’s the mystery of rebuilding. We’d get the scientists on it, but they have been a little busy.