Texas could see massive rain totals from storm

Tropical Storm Nicholas, which formed Sunday in the Gulf of Mexico, could bring heavy rains to coastal Texas and Louisiana today as the 14th named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season continues to strengthen, the National Hurricane Center said.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for the coast of Texas, from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport, about 60 miles south of Houston, the center said. Mexico also issued a tropical storm warning from Barra El Mezquital north to the border with the United States.

A hurricane watch was also in effect for the coast of Texas from San Luis Pass to Port Aransas, the center said.

Nicholas could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 20 inches, across portions of coastal Texas through the middle of the week, the center said.

In parts of East Texas and southwest Louisiana, the storm could produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, which could cause “considerable flash and urban flooding,” the center said.

Forecasters said the center of the storm was expected to pass today near the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas. By early Tuesday morning, the storm will move onshore on the south and central coasts of Texas.

It has been a dizzying couple of months for meteorologists as the arrival of peak hurricane season — August through November — has led to a run of named storms that

have formed in quick succession, bringing stormy weather, flooding and damaging winds to parts of the U.S. and the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Mindy hit the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday, just hours after it formed in the Gulf. Hurricane Larry, which formed Sept. 1, strengthened to a Category 3 storm two days later and then weakened. It struck Canada as a Category 1 hurricane and caused widespread power outages in Newfoundland.

Ida battered Louisiana as a Category 4 hurricane Aug. 29 before its remnants brought deadly flooding to the New York area. Two other tropical storms, Julian and Kate, fizzled within a day at the same time.

Not long before them, in midaugust, Tropical Storm Fred made landfall in the Florida Panhandle and Hurricane Grace hit Haiti and Mexico. Tropical Storm Henri knocked out power and brought record rainfall to the northeastern U.S. on Aug. 22.

The links between hurricanes and climate change are becoming more apparent. A warming planet can expect to see stronger hurricanes over time, along with a higher incidence of the most powerful storms. But the overall number of storms could drop because factors such as stronger wind shear could keep weaker storms from forming.

Hurricanes are also becoming wetter because of more water vapor in the warmer atmosphere; scientists have suggested storms such as Hurricane Harvey in 2017 produced far more rain than they would have without the human effects on climate. Also, rising sea levels are contributing to higher storm surge — the most destructive element of tropical cyclones.

A major U.N. climate report released last month warned that nations had delayed curbing their fossil fuel emissions for so long that they could no longer stop global warming from intensifying over the next 30 years, leading to more frequent life-threatening heat waves and severe droughts. Tropical cyclones have likely become more intense over the past 40 years, the report said, a shift that cannot be explained by natural variability alone.

Ana became the first named storm of the season May 23, making this the seventh year in a row that a named storm developed in the Atlantic Ocean before the official June 1 start of the season.

In May, scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast that there would be 13 to 20 named storms this year, 6 to 10 of which would be

hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher in the Atlantic. Early last month, in a midseason update to the forecast, they continued to warn that this year’s hurricane season would be an above-average one, suggesting a busy end to it.

Matthew Rosencrans of the NOAA said an updated forecast suggested that there would be 15 to 21 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes, by the end of the season Nov. 30.

Last year, there were 30 named storms, including six major hurricanes, forcing meteorologists to exhaust the alphabet for the second time and use Greek letters. It was the highest number of storms on record.