To win in 2022, focus on the present
Last week brought a historic moment to the country. House Democrats passed President Joe Biden’s landmark $1.9 trillion “Build Back Better” legislation.
While it remains unclear whether 50 Democrats in the U.S. Senate will sign off on this act, Biden’s “safety net” legislation, as passed by the House, is still significant, and would provide substantial, unprecedented and much-needed benefits to Americans.
Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.VA., of course, remains the key. He has raised many concerns about this bill. Among them is whether passage of this legislation will exacerbate the inflation already impacting the economy and hurting Americans.
Beyond the policy issues the Senate must grapple with, the Build Back Better proposal also underscores and makes even clearer the enormous political challenges Democrats face in 2022. Although the party of the current president almost always loses seats in the House of Representatives in midterm elections, some pundits contend that inflation makes such losses even more likely.
As someone who studied political rhetoric for more than 40 years, allow me to offer some insights into the rhetorical challenge confronting Democratic candidates in 2022 — challenges that go well beyond whether the proposed legislation will, in fact, increase inflation. History documents that voter perceptions and experiences often are more significant than the reality of a given policy.
Seventeen Nobel Prize-winning economists are on record as saying that Build Back proposals
will ease long-term inflationary pressures and lower costs for Americans. The question that deserves attention is: Why will this fact likely not be effective in convincing Americans to vote for Democratic candidates in 2022? Because the immediate is usually more persuasive than future projections.
Put simply, voters who are experiencing rising prices at grocery stores and gas stations probably will not trust speculations about what will happen in the future. Such long-term projections inherently cannot offset the tangible difficulties voters are experiencing.
The rhetorical challenge facing Democrats is reminiscent of past failed deficit-spending arguments. Voters were not convinced about the long-term harms of deficit spending; instead, their votes were based on their experiences in the moment. As the cliché goes, people vote with their feet; hence, immediate gratification almost always trumps future worries.
Democrats in 2022 must draw on tangible matters that voters
are experiencing. Assuming Build Back Better is signed into law, it will be imperative for Democrats to show voters the impact of this and other Biden legislation on their lives.
Perhaps what I am suggesting also holds powerful rhetorical possibilities for the Democrats on global warming. Unlike in previous years, for example, Americans are now feeling the negative consequences of climate change and thus may be more willing to accept scientific research. Fires and floods are real and horrific, negatively affecting millions of Americans. Global warming, therefore, could become a persuasive issue for Democrats in 2022 and beyond.
Maintaining control of the House and Senate will be a tough lift for the Democratic Party in 2022. Yet it is not too late for Democrats to fully embrace and appropriately respond to the rhetorical challenge facing them.