Wild-card races shaping up to be wild indeed
The wild-card races in the AFC and NFC are both competitive, but they could wind up looking very different. In the AFC, it appears likely that at least 10 wins will be required to earn a place in the postseason, but a 9-8 record or maybe even an 8-9 mark might be enough to secure one of the final two playoff spots in the NFC.
In each conference, there is a relatively clear top five (New England, Tennessee, Baltimore, Kansas City and Buffalo in the AFC; Arizona, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Dallas and the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC), while the competition for the sixth and seventh spots figures to go down to the wire.
Let’s predict which teams will end up making it and take a look at some long-shot candidates:
AFC FAVORITES
Indianapolis Colts: For starters, I’ll just say here that I don’t think the Bills are at legitimate risk of missing the playoffs, even after Monday’s tough home loss to the Patriots, in which New England only attempted three passes the entire game. At 7-5, the Bills have work to do to shore up their playoff résumé, and this week’s game against the Bucs will be a challenge, but they’re still a good team with three favorable games left on the schedule against the Panthers, Falcons and Jets.
As for the Colts, they have made an impressive comeback since their 1-4 start, and heading into their bye week at 7-6, they have a chance to pass several teams ahead of them to secure a postseason bid.
Carson Wentz has been a success in his first season as the Colts’ quarterback, showing great leadership and throwing ability. He is in sync with coach Frank Reich, and the Colts don’t ask him to do too much. He’s surrounded by Jonathan Taylor (the NFL’S best running back with Derrick Henry injured), a great offensive line and a solid defense.
They have the best turnover ratio in the NFL.
Working against Indianapolis is a tough closing schedule that includes New England and Arizona. But if the Colts can beat Las Vegas and Jacksonville, they’ll only need to split against the Cardinals and Patriots to get to 10-7 — which should be enough to make the playoffs.
Los Angeles Chargers: Figuring out which team will get the final spot in the AFC is difficult. The Chargers get the nod here over the Cincinnati Bengals, whom they beat Sunday, because of quarterback Justin Herbert and a manageable schedule the rest of the way, including winnable games against the New York Giants and Houston Texans. Win those two, along with one of their final three divisional games against Kansas City, Denver and Las Vegas, and they’ll make it to 10-7.
AFC CHALLENGERS
Cincinnati Bengals: They aren’t out of it at 7-5, even after Sunday’s loss to the Chargers. In fact, the AFC North title is still within reach, particularly with Baltimore dealing with even more injuries. But a closing schedule made up of home games against the San Francisco
49ers, Ravens and Chiefs, plus road games against the Broncos and Cleveland Browns, will make it difficult on Joe Burrow and Co.
Pittsburgh Steelers: It’s somewhat remarkable that they’re in the playoff mix at 6-5-1, given the struggles they’ve had. But Ben Roethlisberger wants to make the postseason in what appears to be his final year with Pittsburgh, and the defense could get a little healthier down the stretch. The Steelers really need to win Thursday’s game at Minnesota.
AFC LONG SHOT
Miami Dolphins: The Raiders and Browns warranted consideration at 6-6, but both have struggled recently. Instead, I’ll go with the Dolphins, who are on a fivegame winning streak and getting good play out of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. At 6-7, they need to be close to perfect down the stretch and also get some help, but they have winnable games against the New York Jets and New Orleans Saints, so they have a chance.
NFC FAVORITES
Washington Football Team: This is one of the hottest teams in the league, having won four straight. The defense has allowed
just 70 points in that stretch, and quarterback Taylor Heinicke has been solid. The offensive line continues to play well despite losing key players to injury. Wide receiver Curtis Samuel’s return should bolster the supporting cast, but the knee injury to tight end Logan Thomas hurts.
All of Washington’s remaining games are against the NFC East, with two apiece against Philadelphia and Dallas and a season finale against the Giants. If they go 3-2, a postseason berth at 9-8 seems likely.
San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers were on a three-game winning streak before losing Sunday to the Seattle Seahawks. At 6-6, they would be in the field if the season ended today, but it will not be easy down the stretch. They play at Cincinnati on Sunday and have road trips to play the Titans and Rams in the final three weeks.
Also included in that stretch are winnable home games against Atlanta and Houston, so if the 49ers can take care of business against those teams, one more win could be enough to make the playoffs at 9-8. They’ve got the ability to do it, with a strong running game and defense plus steady recent play from Jimmy Garoppolo.
NFC CHALLENGER
Philadelphia Eagles: At 6-7, the Eagles are a half-game out of the playoff field, but two of their next three games are against Washington. They also benefit from having a bye this week, which could allow quarterback Jalen Hurts to be back and healthy in time for that first meeting with Washington. A 3-1 finish probably would earn them a bid — and 2-2 might give them a chance.
NFC LONG SHOTS The four 5-7 teams:
I don’t see any of the 5-7 teams bouncing back. The Vikings have the most talent of the group, but they’ve been bad in close games. If they can beat Pittsburgh on Thursday, they’ll at least have a chance, given that two of their final four games are against the 4-8 Chicago Bears.
The Saints are on a five-game losing streak and are spiraling because of poor quarterback play and injuries. The Carolina Panthers are such a mess that they just fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who had been considered an up-and-comer. The Falcons, who visit Carolina this week, have an offense that can be explosive, but they are giving up 27.7 points per game.