Ukraine: Russian invasion would overwhelm forces
KIEV, Ukraine — With nearly 100,000 Russian troops now massed across Ukraine’s eastern, northern and southern borders and more on the way, even the Ukrainian officials responsible for their country’s defense acknowledge that without a significant influx of resources, their forces do not stand much of a chance.
“Unfortunately, Ukraine needs to be objective at this stage,” said Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service. “There are not sufficient military resources for repelling a full-scale attack by Russia if it begins without the support of Western forces.”
Budanov outlined his nightmare vision of a Russian invasion that would begin with airstrikes and rocket attacks aimed initially at ammunition depots and trench-bound troops. Very quickly, he said, the Ukrainian military would be incapacitated, its leadership unable to coordinate a defense and supply the front. After that, he said, responsibility would fall to front-line commanders to carry on the fight alone.
While Russia could be prepared militarily to launch an invasion of Ukraine as early as January or February, Ukraine and Western intelligence services say there is no indication that Russia President Vladimir Putin has made up his mind whether to do so. In a video call with President Joe Biden on Tuesday, Putin dismissed concerns about the troop buildup on Ukraine’s border.
The U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Russia has devised plans for an offensive involving 175,000 troops.
Ukraine has only slightly more enlisted soldiers and officers in its entire military, according to the Ministry of Defense. It is outgunned on land, at sea and in the air, with only about 200 aircraft in its air force, fewer than the number of fighter planes that Russia has deployed already to the Ukrainian border.
On Wednesday, Biden ruled out deploying U.S. forces to Ukraine to deter Russia. But there are more than 150 U.S. military advisers in Ukraine, a combination of U.S. Special Forces and National Guard, currently the Florida National Guard’s 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, according to two U.S. Defense Department officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity. About a dozen other NATO countries also have military advisers in Ukraine now, the officials said.