Rookie QBS add intrigue to 49ers game
HOUSTON — Barring a miraculous recovery by Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers will introduce the Trey Lance era on Sunday when they host the Texans at Levi’s Stadium.
Garoppolo has a thumb injury on his throwing hand that’s expected to keep him out of the game, and fans in the Bay Area are eager to see what Lance can do for the 49ers while they compete for a wild card playoff berth.
Lance, 21, played at North Dakota State and was the third overall pick in this year’s draft behind Trevor Lawrence ( Jaguars) and Zach Wilson ( Jets). It should be Lance vs. another rookie, Davis Mills, in Santa Clara, Calif.
Mills, 23, is playing 14 miles from Stanford, where he started 11 games before the Texans drafted him in the third round. Expect for Mills to have fans cheering for him.
Mills has helped the Texans earn back-to-back victories over the Jaguars and Chargers and average 35.5 points in the process. Since returning to the lineup three games ago, he’s made remarkable progress.
Mills has thrown five touchdown passes and one interception since he replaced Tyrod Taylor as the starter. In a surprising statistic, Mills leads the NFL with a 113.2 rating in the red zone. He’s thrown six of his 12 touchdown passes in the
red zone and no interceptions. Because of Taylor’s hamstring injury in the second game, Mills was forced into the lineup before the coaches wanted to play him. He experienced growing pains, but he’s excelled in the 30-16 and 41-29 victories over the Jaguars and Chargers.
Mills got a head start on Lance, who wasn’t expected to start as a rookie unless Garoppolo was injured or inept. In what should be Garoppolo’s last season with San Francisco, he’s played well enough to help them make another playoff run, but his thumb injury opens the door for Lance.
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan didn’t swap first-round draft choices and trade first- and second-round picks in 2022 and a firstround pick in 2023 to move up from the 12th spot to select Lance if he didn’t intend to elevate him into the starting lineup as soon as possible.
Lance, 6-4, 224, is under a lot of pressure to produce against a Texans’ defense that forced three turnovers against the Chargers, including a pick-six by cornerback Tavierre Thomas. The Texans intercepted Justin Herbert, the AFC starter in the Pro Bowl, two times and limited him to one touchdown pass.
Lance, who played one game in his last college season that was cancelled because of the pandemic, has started one game, a 17-10 loss at Arizona on Oct. 10. He made a brief appearance off the bench in a 30-10 victory over the Jaguars on Nov. 21.
In that game against the Cardinals, Lance completed 15 of 29 (51.7 percent) for 192 yards and no touchdowns. He threw one interception, was sacked twice and had a 58.4 rating.
Lance showed Arizona what an exceptional runner he is. He ran 16 times for 89 yards, a 6.6 average per carry. Without Lance as their starter, the 49ers are 10th in offense, including seventh in rushing and 13th passing. He’ll make their running game even more productive.
Defensive coordinator Lovie Smith will build his game plan around defending the run and trying to keep Lance in the pocket as much as possible. Smith will emphasize to his players how disciplined they have to be on the edge and in the run lanes to keep Lance from blowing by them.
The 49ers have to make sure what happened to the Chargers doesn’t happen to them at such a crucial time of the season with so much on the line.
First-year 49ers defensive coordinator Demeco Ryans, who played linebacker for the Texans for six years (2006-11), has watched enough tape to see what Mills is capable of doing if he has an efficient running game and is given time to throw.
Ryans has seen the Texans’ best running game of the season and how the offensive balance ravaged the Chargers for 437 yards, including 189 rushing. They’ll have a plan for Rex Burkhead after he ran embarrassed the Chargers for 149 yards and two touchdowns.
It goes without saying that Shanahan, Ryans and the other San Francisco coaches are impressed with Mills’ progress.
The Texans are 2-2 against rookie quarterbacks, and Mills is 1-1. Mills lost 25-22 to Mac Jones and New England and defeated Lawrence and Jacksonville two weeks ago.
Taylor beat Lawrence 37-21 in the opener and lost to Wilson and the Jets 21-14. That loss to the Jets is the worst of the season.
In his three games since returning to the lineup, Mills is 73 of 106 (68.9 percent) for 794 yards and five touchdowns. He has one interception and a rating of 102.5. He hasn’t compiled a rating of less than 92.2.
Of the five rookie quarterbacks who’ve been regular starters, Mills is the only one outside of the first round. Mills’ 86.2 rating is second to Jones (90.2) and leads Chicago’s Justin Fields (73.2), Lawrence (70.6) and Wilson (67.9).
Mills has thrown 329 passes and has 12 touchdowns. By comparison, Lawrence has thrown 543 passes with nine touchdowns.
But this game isn’t about Lawrence, Wilson, Fields or Jones. It’s about Mills and Lance.
Lance plays for a much better team, one that’s trying to secure a playoff berth.
Mills plays on a team that’s 4-11, including 3-3 over the last six games. He outplayed Lawrence and Herbert in the last two games. Now the question is can he outplay Lance to make it three in a row.