Analyst predicts price of gas will fall 13 cents a gallon in U.S. for ’24

Your buck is likely to take you a little farther on a road trip this year.

At least that’s the outlook from Patrick De Haan, Gasbuddy’s head of petroleum analysis and one of the most cited experts on gasoline prices.

De Haan is predicting a 13 cents a gallon drop in regular unleaded gas prices nationwide this year, along with the usual seasonal ups and downs seen every spring and summer. His 2023 prediction fell short by only 2 cents — $3.49 a gallon versus $3.51 in actuality.

“Those seasonal trends are very well established,” he said. “But all in all, we expect a modest improvement.”

For 2024, De Haan is forecasting a high of $3.45 to $3.85 for Dallas-fort Worth drivers — on par with cities like Houston, Atlanta and Cleveland.

California drivers could see prices as high as $6.35 a gallon.

Across Texas, the yearly average will be anywhere from $2.88 to $3.18 a gallon. Across the country, the yearly average is predicted to be $3.38 a gallon.

U.S. gas prices will be the lowest in the first three months and the last three months of this year, dropping as low as $2.99 on average in December, De Haan predicted.

Texas tends to be one of the cheapest states to buy gas in the country, based on its location and taxes, De Haan said.

Texas’ gasoline taxes are among the lowest in the nation.

De Haan cautioned his outlook with a caveat about how global conflicts or weather could disrupt production, rendering predictions moot.

“As the world continues to navigate situations like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and violence in the Middle East, an elevated level of uncertainty remains, making an accurate forecast very challenging,” he wrote in his forecast.

“These situations, as well as the fluid state of the global economy, fiscal policy by central banks to tame inflation, as well as potential interest rate cuts could alter the direction of the economy, shifting fundamentals in significant ways.”