A look at what’s in store for weather in March
When Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow Feb. 2, signaling an early spring, we saw his forecast become real in Texas as above-average temperatures occurred all across the Lone Star State in February.
Here in San Antonio, the average high temperature was 70.9 degrees during the month, which is about 31⁄2 degrees above average. When looking at the individual days, only six of February’s 29 days resulted in below-average temps, and the Alamo City dropped to the freezing mark just one time.
It was the same story across much of the state. Houston averaged a high of 72.6 degrees, nearly 5 degrees above average for the month. Moving north, Dallas-fort Worth averaged 68.9 degrees in February, which was among the area’s top five warmest ever.
However, rainfall totals weren’t quite spring-like. San Antonio only recorded 0.87 inch of rain during the month. Cities like Dallas and Houston did see slightly higher totals, but their monthly totals stayed about 25% below average as well.
Transitional month
March is a transitional month as winter turns into spring. Here in San Antonio, average high temperatures rise from 70 degrees on March 1, up to 77 degrees on March 31. Much of the increase comes from more solar radiation. The Alamo City will see 53 more minutes of daylight by the end of the month.
Those are just the averages, though. How is this year’s March shaping up exactly? The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has come out with its updated March outlook, but it honestly leaves more questions than answers.
Here’s what the outlook says: The eastern U.S. is favored to see above-average temperatures, and the southwestern U.S. is expected to have temps that are cooler than average.
In Texas, we’re stuck in the middle, and the outlook gives “equal chances” of above-average or below-average temps throughout the state. Basically, they’re saying it could go either way.
Long-range models
Let’s try to go a bit further and look at the long-range weather models. When you look more than a week into the future, individual weather models become inconsistent and don’t hold much weight. That’s why meteorologists look at ensemble modeling to see trends up to four weeks away.
In ensemble modeling, we take multiple forecast models using a variety of starting conditions and average the results together. Here in Texas, ensemble modeling shows that aboveaverage temperatures are expected in early March, specifically next week, starting Sunday. However, below-average temperatures are expected in late March, specifically the week of March 21-28.
So after a warm start to the month and a cool finish, chances are that temperatures end up close to average by the time the month is over.