San Diego Union-Tribune (Sunday)
DOES OPENING CALIFORNIA TOO SOON HURT THE ECONOMY MORE IN THE LONG RUN?
NO The problem isn’t going away no matter how long we try to shut down. We need to find a way to keep life moving forward that rationally weighs costs and benefits. That doesn’t mean things return to normal. Face masks are a must, and many activities need to stay on hold or be carried on much differently than before. Say hello to drive-in theaters, outside dining and on-line meetings. YES If we are not healthy our economy cannot be healthy. Restarting business, than having to close again, is even worse. Three months of isolation have been wasted because so many people did not adhere to basic common sense, having made mask wearing and social distancing a political issue. Now we get exactly the opposite of what the agnostics were seeking: renewed restrictions and another inevitable economic slowdown. NO Prolonged closures will continue to impact hundreds of thousands of workers and do irreparable harm to already struggling businesses. The longer the California economy is shut down, the more damage will be done to it. Opening later might keep COVID-19 numbers lower for now, but as soon as the restrictions are lifted cases will rise again. We need a managed reopening of businesses with people acting responsibly, social distancing, and wearing masks. YES The ordering of new shutdowns will be highly disruptive for business, leading them to fear a continued “stop-start” process. This will upend their ability to plan, order supplies, and access credit. Their employees will suffer and may opt to collect unemployment benefits rather than contend with an unreliable job. Frustrated and fearful consumers may just stay homebound pending a vaccine. The recovery was never going to be smooth, but it will now be jagged and erratic. YES We are seeing the negative impact of the hasty effort to reopen. As restrictions eased, allowing return to restaurants, bars, gyms, and outdoor activity, COVID-19 cases have risen. The recall on reopenings is shuttering businesses again. Businesses are not likely to have cash reserves to cushion against another closing, employees will lose jobs, and consumer confidence will be further weakened. All this will cause a much slower pace for economic rebound. NO The state needed to reopen the economy in a phased approach to allow businesses to start their recovery and help people return to work. In the long term, the California economy could have experienced more severe damage and ripple effects if businesses remained closed and workers remained unemployed. That said, Californians shouldn’t let their guard down and should help containment and spread by wearing masks, social distancing, and washing their hands. NO We need to have at least a partially open economy to avoid both financial and mental health breakdowns. Outdoor activities have been considered safe by medical professionals. Indoor, while less safe, can be managed for sanitation and safety in most cases. We must focus on the basics of washing hands, not touching the face, wearing masks and limiting social circles while looking for treatments and a vaccine. Crushing the economy again is a non-starter. YES We all want to reopen, get our economy moving and have employees come back to work. But we will be able to do so successfully only if everyone complies with health and safety rules: wear a mask, practice social distancing, wash your hands and avoid others not from your household. Otherwise, we’ll cause a COVID-19 surge that will require costly roll-backs. This start and stop will be worse than a slow and cautious reopening.