COVID-19 ‘CURVE’ IS NO LONGER FLAT

Looking at caseload using a different method shows the summer’s spike in cases

San Diego County has been relatively lucky when it comes to the COVID-19 pandemic. So far.

Since the beginning of July, the county has confirmed more than 7,000 COVID-19 cases, with a daily average of nearly 500. That jump in caseloads occurred roughly two weeks after the county began reopening many businesses and indoor activities. Until that point, the county had managed to “flatten the curve.” That goal is to keep the rate of cases low enough so the hospital system is not overloaded.

Visualizing the curve in traditional ways is difficult, as linear scales over time end up showing the trend: cases rising. So a chart done earlier in the pandemic looks similar to one now because the trend is mostly the same — a point that many Union-tribune readers made in earlier iterations of our graphical coverage of the pandemic.

By plotting a chart on a logarithmic scale, it becomes easier to see trends and compare datasets that have different ranges.

Logarithmic charts are built for exponents — the vertical space that typically represents the same value on a linear chart increases by a factor of 10 in most logarithmic charts.

Still, the region remains an island surrounded by much more dramatic curves, as all surrounding counties and Baja California have seen more dramatic case rates than San Diego. As the country deals with shortages of tests, these curves may flatten, only to be belied by rising hospitalizations and deaths.

daniel.wheaton @sduniontribune.com