San Diego Union-Tribune (Sunday)
It’s improbable, but it’s not insane to think about perfection
It’s pure folly (almost always) to think a Division I men’s basketball team will run the regular-season table. It’s punch-drunk logic (almost always) to think a team can cleanly navigate the road grind, shooting fates, whims of officials, stomach bugs and all the history-slaying factors pockmarking schedules.
It’s borderline absurd (almost always) to forecast perfection on the horizon.
Dig into the games the Aztecs played so far, the games remaining and the unique depth. It makes a person go … hmm. It makes a person connect dots. It makes a person, well, consider rare air and whether this team has any earthly chance to breathe it.
“We always get better as the season goes on,” Aztecs coach Brian Dutcher said. “So, our best basketball is ahead of us.”
Start, though, by looking what’s behind them. They stopped UCLA, the preseason pick to win the Pac-12. They beat No. 23, Pac-12 bridesmaid pick Arizona State on the road, the first victory in Tempe since gas stood at 63 cents in 1978. They stopped UC Irvine, the Big West preseason favorite.
Gonzaga, Kansas and Villanova ended the work week as the only other teams with two wins against Top 25 teams. The Aztecs lead Division I with a nonconference winning streak that stands at 17 and road win streak of 13. In the program’s collective sneakers, they’ve racked up five consecutive double-digit wins against major-conference opponents.
Since the start of last season, the Aztecs own the country’s best record at 35-2 — including a 5-0 start this fall.
“We looked at our schedule before the season started, and we liked every game that we had in (nonconference play),” guard Jordan Schakel said Thursday, after his team dispatched the Sun Devils 80-68. “We know it’s going to be very tough, very challenging, and that’s why everyone on this roster came to San Diego State, playing games like this.”
Granted, a spotless regular season only has happened 19 times in history, with four of those runs belonging to the greatness of John Wooden-led UCLA.
Starting in the summer of 1979, perfection bubbled up only once — UNLV and towel-mangling coach Jerry Tarkanian, 1991 — in the next 35 years.
Or roughly the age of a BYU guard.
Now, peek ahead. Speaking of BYU, the Aztecs’ opponent Friday at Viejas Arena, lost to USC by 26 points and appears quite mortal. Teams with the three best early records in the Mountain West — Nevada, Wyoming and Boise State — play both of their games at Viejas because of travel-reducing coronavirus scheduling.
Saint Mary’s, despite a
6-1 start, has feasted on a soft schedule after an opening loss to Memphis.
Two games at UNLV and two others at Utah State in January seem to threaten with the most slippery footing. The second game at Utah State, at altitude Jan. 16, the most trap-y of them all.
Nathan Mensah, another reason to feel bullish about the Aztecs’ prospects, is fully functional again after a blood clot in his lung. The proof: The 6-10 junior piled up 17 points and 15 rebounds against Arizona State, the second 15-point, 15-rebound game in the last 18 seasons.
“(We have the) mindset that anytime we get on the road, the opponent, the crowd, and everyone is against us, so it’s like, ‘We’re all we’ve got,’ ” Mensah said. “You have to prove everyone wrong.”
The Aztecs caused San Diego to rethink impossible just a season ago, knifing through the schedule with plenty of core players still dribbling away today. A tight three-point loss to UNLV and step-back 3 by Utah State’s Sam Merrill in the final seconds with a defender draping on him in the MW Tournament final were the sole blemishes.
Two plays, potentially, away from 30-2 rising to 32-0. Winning out (almost always) proves a mountain too rugged and oxygen deprived.
COVID-19 could prove the toughest opponent of all. Three players, including rotation piece Keshad Johnson, failed to make the trip to Tempe because of contact tracing concerns outside of team activities.
The virus could gut a locker room in a blink.
These Aztecs, though, can go at least 10 guys in, spurring Dutcher to claim it’s the deepest group during his time in San Diego. Telling metrics like scoring margin (18.6), turnover margin (6.0, tied for 24th in the country) and scoring defense (57 points, T24th) reveal the sturdiness of the chassis.
They might have the best chance to keep a zero in the loss column of any team not named Gonzaga, though the top-ranked Bulldogs face No. 3 Iowa on a neutral court Dec. 19. The Big Ten and ACC, with six teams each in the Top 25, and the Big 12 (with five) will cannibalize each other.
In the Big East, No. 8 Creighton has to hurdle No. 9 Villanova and vice versa.
So, the schedule awaiting the Aztecs offers a far easier path moving ahead than those in big-boy conferences. Add in no road crowds along with San Diego State’s experience, defense and depth — and imagining a special run seems a little less insane. Will it happen? Probably not.
If 2020 has taught us anything, though, it’s this: Rule things out at your own risk.